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What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

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  • Cysne, Rubens Penha

Abstract

I start presenting an explicit solution to Taylorís (2001) model, in order to illustrate the link between the target interest rate and the overnight interest rate prevailing in the economy. Next, I use Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interest rate by 1%. Point estimates show a four-year accumulated output loss ranging from 0:04% (whole sample, 1980 : 1-2004 : 2; quarterly data) to 0:25% (Post-Real data only) with a Örst-year peak output response between 0:04% and 1:0%; respectively. Prices decline between 2% and 4% in a 4-year horizon. The accumulated output response is found to be between 3:5 and 6 times higher after the Real Plan than when the whole sample is considered. The 95% confidence bands obtained using bias-corrected bootstrap always include the null output response when the whole sample is used, but not when the data is restricted to the Post-Real period. Innovations to interest rates explain between 4:9% (whole sample) and 9:2% (post-Real sample) of the forecast error of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 584, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:584
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    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Working Papers 1999-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    5. Pastore, Affonso Celso, 1997. "Passividade monetária e inércia," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 51(1), January.
    6. Furfine, Craig H., 2000. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 535-553, October.
    7. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
    8. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2004. "Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? An application of Bias-Corrected Bootstrap," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 577, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    9. John B. Taylor, 2001. "Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 33-58.
    10. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2005. "Special interests and political business cycles," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 597, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    2. repec:eee:jbfina:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:90-107 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Affinito, Massimiliano & Franco Pozzolo, Alberto, 2017. "The interbank network across the global financial crisis: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 90-107.
    4. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2005. "Estimating the stochastic discount factor without a utility function," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 583, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    5. Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda, 2005. "The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the brazilian experience," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 591, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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