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Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis

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  • Dées, Stéphane
  • di Mauro, Filippo
  • Pesaran, Hashem
  • Smith, Vanessa

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector errorcorrecting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy, over the period 1979-2003. It advances research in this area in a number of directions. In particular, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. It develops a sieve bootstrap procedure for simulation of the GVAR as a whole to test the structural stability of the regression coefficients and error variances, and to establish confidence bounds for the impulse responses. Finally, in addition to generalized impulse responses, the paper also considers the use of the GVAR for "structural" impulse response analysis. JEL Classification: C32, E17, F47

Suggested Citation

  • Dées, Stéphane & di Mauro, Filippo & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 568, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005568
    Note: 2544114
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global interdependencies; global macroeconomic modeling; Global VAR (GVAR); impulse responses.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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