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Modelling Portfolio Capital Flows in a Global Framework: Multilateral Implications of Capital Controls

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  • Boero, Gianna
  • Mandalinci, Zeyyad
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many emerging market countries resorted to capital controls to tackle the excessive surge of capital inflows. A number of recent research papers have suggested that the imposition of controls may have imposed negative externalities on other countries by deflecting flows. Our aim in the research reported in this paper is to construct a comprehensive global econometric model which captures the dynamic interactions of capital flows with domestic and global fundamentals, and to assess the efficacy of capital controls and potential deflection effects on other countries. The results suggest that capital controls areeffective for some countries in the short run, but have no lasting effects. Moreover, there is only limited evidence of deflection effects for a small number of emerging market countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P, 2016. "Modelling Portfolio Capital Flows in a Global Framework: Multilateral Implications of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 11689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Di Filippo, Gabriele, 2017. "What Drives Gross Flows in Equity and Investment Fund Shares in Luxembourg?," MPRA Paper 84200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Jan 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital controls; emerging markets; Global VAR (GVAR); Portfolio Capital Flows;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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