IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Bubble Thy Neighbor: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls

Listed author(s):
  • Forbes, Kristin
  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Straub, Roland

We use changes in Brazil’s tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2011 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. The analysis is structured based on information from investor interviews. We find that an increase in Brazil’s tax on foreign investment in bonds causes investors to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Investors simultaneously increase allocations to other countries that have substantial exposure to China and decrease allocations to countries viewed as more likely to use capital controls. Much of the effect of capital controls on portfolio flows appears to occur through signalling (i.e. changes in investor expectations about future policies) rather than the direct cost of the controls. This evidence of significant externalities from capital controls suggests that any assessment of controls should consider their effects on portfolio flows to other countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8979
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8979.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2012
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8979
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.

Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2007. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 171-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jeanne, O. & Korinek, A., 2010. "Managing Credit Booms and Busts : A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," Discussion Paper 2010-108S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
  4. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  5. Marcos Chamon & Marcio Garcia, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil: effective?," Textos para discussão 606, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  6. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Chapters, in: Global Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2008. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope," NBER Working Papers 14165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Joshua Aizenman & Vladyslav Sushko, 2011. "Capital flows: Catalyst or Hindrance to economic takeoffs?," NBER Working Papers 17258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1364, European Central Bank.
  10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
  12. Andrés Fernández & Michael W. Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martin Uribe, 2015. "Capital Control Measures; A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 15/80, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2015. "Capital Flow Management Measures: What Are They Good For?," NBER Working Papers 20860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Malika Pant & Yanliang Miao, 2012. "Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 12/55, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2001. "The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows," NBER Working Papers 8472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
  18. R. Gaston Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2987-3020, December.
  19. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
  20. Fernando Broner & R. Gaston Gelos & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2003. "When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Economics Working Papers 864, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2005.
  21. Leonardo Bartolini & Allan Drazen, 1996. "Capital account liberalization as a signal," Staff Reports 11, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud J. Mehl, 2011. "Global Crises and Equity Market Contagion," NBER Working Papers 17121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Graciela Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, 03.
  25. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
  26. Chikako Baba & Annamaria Kokenyne, 2011. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000's," IMF Working Papers 11/281, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Reinhart, Carmen & Magud, Nicolas, 2007. "Capital controls: An evaluation," MPRA Paper 14097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 645-674 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Paolo Mauro, 2007. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 389-411, September.
  29. Claudio Raddatz ; & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2012. "On the International Transmission of Shocks: Micro – Evidence From Mutual Fund Portfolios," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 668, Central Bank of Chile.
  30. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  31. Laura Alfaro & Anusha Chari & Fabio Kanczuk, 2014. "The Real Effects of Capital Control Taxes: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment," NBER Working Papers 20726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
  33. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
  34. Stulz, Rene M, 1981. "On the Effects of Barriers to International Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 923-934, September.
  35. Olivier Jeanne & Arvind Subramanian & John Williamson, 2012. "Who Needs to Open the Capital Account?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 5119, 03.
  36. Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2006. "Ineffective Controls On Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil In The Nineties," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 58, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  37. Selim Elekdag & Ayhan Kose & Roberto Cardarelli, 2009. "Capital Inflows; Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 09/40, International Monetary Fund.
  38. Arnaud Costinot & Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2011. "A Theory of Capital Controls as Dynamic Terms-of-Trade Manipulation," NBER Working Papers 17680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
  40. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
  41. R. G Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey," IMF Working Papers 11/92, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
  44. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  45. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  46. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:45:y:2012:i:2012-02:p:317-367 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Michael W. Klein, 2012. "Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls," NBER Working Papers 18526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8979. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.