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Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls

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  • Forbes, Kristin
  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Kostka, Thomas
  • Straub, Roland

Abstract

We use changes in Brazil's tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2013 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. We find that an increase in Brazil's tax on foreign investment in bonds causes fund managers to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Fund managers simultaneously increase allocations to other countries that have substantial exposure to China and decrease allocations to countries viewed as more likely to adjust their capital controls. Much of the effect of capital controls on portfolio allocation appears to occur through signalling — i.e., changes in investor expectations about future policies — rather than the direct cost of the controls. This evidence of significant externalities from capital controls suggests that any assessment of controls should consider their effects on portfolio flows to other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:99:y:2016:i:c:p:85-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.12.010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital controls; Externalities; Spillovers; Signalling; Mutual funds; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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