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Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence

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  • Bilge Erten
  • Anton Korinek
  • José Antonio Ocampo

Abstract

This paper synthesizes recent advances in the theoretical and empirical literature on capital controls. We start by observing that international capital flows have both benefits and costs, but some of these are not internalized by individual actors and thus constitute externalities. The theoretical literature has identified pecuniary externalities and aggregate demand externalities that respectively contribute to financial instability and recessions. These externalities provide a natural rationale for counter-cyclical capital controls that lean against boom and busts cycles in international capital flows. The empirical literature has developed several measures of capital controls to capture different aspects of capital account openness. We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different measures and provide an overview of the empirical findings on the effectiveness of capital controls in addressing the externalities identified by the theory literature, i.e. in reducing financial fragility and enhancing macroeconomic stability. We also discuss strategies to deal with the endogeneity of capital controls in such statistical exercises. We conclude by providing an overview of the historical and current debates on the role of capital controls in macroeconomic management and their relationship to the academic literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2019. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 26447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26447
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    3. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Marina Lovchikova & Johannes Matschke, 2021. "Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle," Research Working Paper RWP 21-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. De La Peña, Rogelio, 2021. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind in a small-open economy? Revisiting the Tinbergen rule," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    6. -, 2020. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020: Main conditioning factors of fiscal and monetary policies in the post-COVID-19 era," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 46071 edited by Eclac.
    7. Andreas Schabert, 2021. "Optimal Corrective Policies under Financial Frictions," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 107, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    8. Binici, Mahir & Das, Mitali, 2021. "Recalibration of capital controls: Evidence from the IMF taxonomy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Graf Von Luckner,Clemens Mathis Henrik,Reinhart,Carmen M.,Rogoff,Kenneth S., 2021. "Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9794, The World Bank.
    10. Rogelio De la Peña, 2021. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind in a small-open economy? Revisiting the Tinbergen rule," Working Papers 2021-01, Banco de México.
    11. Bergant, Katharina & Grigoli, Francesco & Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sandri, Damiano, 2020. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Konstantinos Tsibikis & Jan Donders, 2020. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Market Efficiency in the Netherlands: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(9), pages 204-214, September.

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    13. Chang Ma & John H. Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2019. "The Effect of the China Connect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-087, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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