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Macroprudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Bianchi
  • Emine Boz
  • Enrique Gabriel Mendoza

Abstract

The interaction between credit frictions, financial innovation, and a switch from optimistic to pessimistic beliefs played a central role in the 2008 financial crisis. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework in which this interaction drives the financial amplification mechanism to study the effects of macroprudential policy. Financial innovation enhances the ability of agents to collateralize assets into debt, but the riskiness of this new regime can only be learned over time. Beliefs about transition probabilities across states with high and low ability to borrow change as agents learn from observed realizations of financial conditions. At the same time, the collateral constraint introduces a pecuniary externality, because agents fail to internalize the effect of their borrowing decisions on asset prices. Quantitative analysis shows that the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in this environment depends on the government's information set, the tightness of credit constraints, and the pace at which optimism surges in the early stages of financial innovation. The policy is least effective when the government is as uninformed as private agents, credit constraints are tight, and optimism builds quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & Emine Boz & Enrique Gabriel Mendoza, 2012. "Macroprudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 223-269, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:60:y:2012:i:2:p:223-269
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms; Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Javier Bianchi, 2010. "Overborrowing, financial crises and ‘macro-prudential’ taxes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
    5. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "What Comes to Mind," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1399-1433.
    6. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    7. Anton Korinek, 2011. "Systemic Risk-Taking: Amplification Effects, Externalities, and Regulatory Responses," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-13, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    8. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1993. "Debt-Constrained Asset Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 865-888.
    9. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    10. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    11. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Chenxin Liu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity, and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    4. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:232-259 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    6. Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Jorge Roldos, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 14/30, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 19704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. McNelis, Paul D., 2016. "Optimal policy rules at home, crisis and quantitative easing abroad," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Kiley, Michael T. & Sim, Jae, 2017. "Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 232-259.
    10. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Basak, Deepal & Murray, Alexander & Zhao, Yunhui, 2017. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for More Stringent Regulation?," MPRA Paper 81373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2013. "The foundations of macroprudential regulation : a conceptual roadmap," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6575, The World Bank.
    13. repec:eee:finsta:v:29:y:2017:i:c:p:92-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    15. repec:clh:resear:v:8:y:2015:i:34 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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