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Collateral Shortages, Asset Price and Investment Volatility with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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Abstract

The recent economic crisis highlights the role of financial markets in allowing economic agents, including prominent banks, to speculate on the future returns of different financial assets, such as mortgage-backed securities. This paper in troduces a dynamic general equilibrium model with aggregate shocks, potentially incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents to investigate this role of financial markets. In addition to their risk aversion and endowments, agents differ in their beliefs about the future exogenous states (aggregate and idiosyncratic) of the economy. This difference in beliefs induces them to take large bets under frictionless complete financial markets, which enable agents to leverage their future wealth. Consequently, as hypothesized by Friedman (1953), under complete markets, agents with incorrect beliefs will eventually be driven out of the markets. In this case, they also have no influence on asset prices and real investment in the long run. In contrast, I show that under incomplete markets generated by collateral constraints, agents with heterogeneous (potentially incorrect) beliefs survive in the long run and their speculative activities permanently drive up asset price volatility and real investment volatility. I also show that collateral constraints are always binding even if the supply of collateral assets endogenously responds to their price. I use this framework to study the effects of different types of regulations and the distribution of endowments on leverage, asset price volatility and investment. Lastly, the analytical tools developed in this framework enable me to prove the existence of the "generalized" recursive equilibrium in Krusell and Smith (1998) with a finite number of agents.

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  • Dan Cao, 2011. "Collateral Shortages, Asset Price and Investment Volatility with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working Papers gueconwpa~11-11-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~11-11-01
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2013. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," AMSE Working Papers 1333, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 05 Jun 2013.
    2. Fostel, Ana & Geanakoplos, John, 2012. "Why does bad news increase volatility and decrease leverage?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 501-525.
    3. Brangewitz, Sonja & Giraud, Gael, 2016. "Learning in Infinite Horizon Strategic Market Games with Collateral and Incomplete Information," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 456, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    4. Gaël Giraud & Antonin Pottier, 2016. "Debt-deflation versus the liquidity trap: the dilemma of nonconventional monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 383-408, June.
    5. Brumm, Johannes & Grill, Michael & Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2015. "Margin regulation and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 54-68.
    6. Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2015. "Investment, speculation, and financial regulation," 2015 Meeting Papers 627, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Piero Gottardi & Felix Kubler, 2015. "Dynamic Competitive Economies with Complete Markets and Collateral Constraints," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 1119-1153.
    8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Alp Simsek & Wei Xiong, 2014. "A Welfare Criterion For Models With Distorted Beliefs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1753-1797.
    9. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    10. repec:aea:aejmac:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:222-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sonja Brangewitz & Gaël Giraud, 2012. "Learning by Trading in Infinite Horizon Strategic Market Games with Default," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12062r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Oct 2013.

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