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Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession

Author

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  • Patrick Pintus

    (Aix-Marseille School of Economics)

  • Jacek Suda

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

This paper develops a simple business-cycle model in which financial shocks have large macroeconomic effects when private agents are gradually learning the uncertain environment. Agents update their beliefs about the reduced-form structure of the economy. Because the persistence of leverage is overestimated by adaptive learners, the responses of output, investment, and other aggregates under adaptive learning are significantly larger than under rational expectations. In our benchmark case calibrated using US data on leverage, debt-to-GDP and land value-to-GDP ratios for 1996Q1–2008Q4, learning amplifies leverage shocks by a factor of about three, relative to rational expectations. When fed with actual leverage innovations observed over that period, the learning model predicts that the persistence of leverage shocks is increasingly overestimated after 2002 and that a sizeable recession occurs in 2008–2010, while its rational expectations counterpart predicts a counter-factual expansion. In addition, we show that procyclical leverage reinforces the amplification due to learning and, accordingly, that macro-prudential policies that enforce countercyclical leverage dampen the effects of leverage shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2019. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 123-146, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.06.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Venky Venkateswaran & Laura Veldkamp & Julian Kozlowski, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," 2015 Meeting Papers 800, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 21719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Winkler, Fabian, 2016. "The Role of Learning for Asset Prices and Business Cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), revised 01 Mar 2017.
    4. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2018. "The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eleni Iliopulos & Erica Perego & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2018. "International business cycles: Information matters," THEMA Working Papers 2018-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Martin Guzman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2016. "Pseudo-wealth and Consumption Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 22838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collateral constraints; Adaptive learning; Financial shocks; Great Recession;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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