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A model of price swings in the housing market

Author

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  • Carlos Garriga
  • Rodolfo E. Manuelli
  • Adrian Peralta-Alva

Abstract

In this paper we use a standard neoclassical model supplemented by some frictions to understand large price swings in the housing market. We construct a two good general equilibrium model in which housing is a composite good produced using structures and land. We revisit the connection between changes in interest rates, credit conditions as measured by maximum loan-to-value ratios and expectations in influencing housing prices in a setting in which the stock of housing can be used as collateral for borrowing and credit markets are segmented. We find that changes in interest rates and credit conditions can generate significant price swings. Under rational expectations (perfect foresight) our model is able to explain 50% of the recent movements in U.S. house prices. When we allow shocks to expectations, the model’s ability to match the evidence increases significantly. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that standard asset pricing formulas seem to correctly describe the behavior of house prices if the appropriate pricing kernel is used.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
    2. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    4. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    2. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Cesaire Meh, 2014. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 461, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2014. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 51-93, October.
    4. repec:eee:regeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:224-246 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 52-67 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Branch, William A. & Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2016. "Financial frictions, the housing market, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 101-135.
    7. Gete, Pedro, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Aug 2015.
    8. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2014. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Working Paper Series WP-2014-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 01 Mar 2014.
    9. Fernando Borraz & Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce, 2012. "Precios de viviendas. una metodología para evaluar desvíos respecto a sus fundamentos," Documentos de trabajo 2012016, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    10. Jorge Ponce, 2012. "Precio de fundamentos para las viviendas en Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2012017, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    11. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    12. John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel & Richard Roll, 2015. "Can Housing Risk Be Diversified? A Cautionary Tale from the Housing Boom and Bust," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 913-936.
    13. Eric Mayer & Johannes Gareis, 2013. "What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 919-961, November.
    14. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2015. "Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach," Working Paper 2015/11, Norges Bank.
    15. Boldrin, Michele & Garriga, Carlos & Peralta-Alva, Adrian & Sánchez, Juan M., 2012. "Reconstructing the great recession," Working Papers 2013-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 21 Jan 2016.
    16. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    17. Narayan Bulusu & Jefferson Duarte & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2013. "Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply," Staff Working Papers 13-18, Bank of Canada.
    18. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    19. Luis Franjo, 2015. "International Interest Rates and Housing Markets," Working Papers 201501, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Feb 2015.

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    Keywords

    Mortgages ; Housing - Prices;

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