A model of price swings in the housing market
In this paper we use a standard neoclassical model supplemented by some frictions to understand large price swings in the housing market. We construct a two good general equilibrium model in which housing is a composite good produced using structures and land. We revisit the connection between changes in interest rates, credit conditions as measured by maximum loan-to-value ratios and expectations in influencing housing prices in a setting in which the stock of housing can be used as collateral for borrowing and credit markets are segmented. We find that changes in interest rates and credit conditions can generate significant price swings. Under rational expectations (perfect foresight) our model is able to explain 50% of the recent movements in U.S. house prices. When we allow shocks to expectations, the model’s ability to match the evidence increases significantly. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that standard asset pricing formulas seem to correctly describe the behavior of house prices if the appropriate pricing kernel is used.
|Date of creation:||2012|
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- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012.
"House Price Booms and the Current Account,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 77-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," CEP Discussion Papers dp1064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jonathan Heathcote, 2003. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-21, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, 03.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2007. " Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0705, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Michaelides, Alexander & Nikolov, Kalin, 2010. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7953, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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