IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/2015-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Gelain
  • Kevin J. Lansing
  • Gisele J. Natvik

Abstract

We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to ?reverse-engineer? the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household real estate value and mortgage debt over the period 1995 to 2012. Conditional on the observed paths for U.S. disposable income growth and the mortgage interest rate, we consider four different specifications of the model that vary according to the way that household expectations are formed (rational versus moving average forecast rules) and the maturity of the mortgage contract (one-period versus long-term). We find that the model with moving average forecast rules and long-term mortgage debt does best in plausibly matching the patterns observed in the data. Counterfactual simulations show that shifting lending standards (as measured by a loan-to-equity limit) were an important driver of the episode while movements in the mortgage interest rate were not. Our results lend support to the view that the U.S. housing boom was a classic credit-fueled bubble involving over-optimistic projections about future housing values, relaxed lending standards, and ineffective mortgage regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisele J. Natvik, 2015. "Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach," Working Paper Series 2015-2, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2015-02
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2015-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2015-02.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    3. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    4. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
    5. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
    6. Kevin J. Lansing & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2015. "Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 5517, CESifo.
    7. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    8. Nikolai Roussanov & Michael Michaux & Hui Chen, 2011. "Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2011 Meeting Papers 1369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2011. "Subprime Lending and Real Estate Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    11. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006," NBER Working Papers 20152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2008. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 120-144, spring.
    13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    14. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    15. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    16. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    17. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    18. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
    19. Kevin J. Lansing & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2018. "Top Incomes, Rising Inequality and Welfare," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 262-297, February.
    20. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    22. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    23. David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 354-374, May.
    24. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    25. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 367-384, March.
    26. KevinX.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2009. "Learning, Adaptive Expectations and Technology Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(536), pages 377-405, March.
    27. Kevin J. Lansing & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2018. "Top Incomes, Rising Inequality and Welfare," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 262-297, February.
    28. University of Chicago & Pedro Gete, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 427, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    30. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    31. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    32. Edward L. Glaeser & Charles G. Nathanson, 2014. "Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 20426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    34. Yongqiang Chu, 2014. "Credit constraints, inelastic supply, and the housing boom," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 52-69, January.
    35. Jim Berkovec & Yan Chang & Douglas A. McManus, 2012. "Alternative Lending Channels and the Crisis in U.S. Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40, pages 8-31, December.
    36. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    37. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    38. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
    39. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 233-283, April.
    40. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
    41. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    42. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    43. Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
    44. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-1279, September.
    45. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    46. Morris A. Davis & Andreas Lehnert & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "The Rent‐Price Ratio For The Aggregate Stock Of Owner‐Occupied Housing," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(2), pages 279-284, June.
    47. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    48. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2017. "An extrapolative model of house price dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 147-170.
    49. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J Lansing & Gisle James Natvik, 2018. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1350-1393.
    50. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    51. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2012. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 36-66, January.
    53. David C. Ling & Joseph T.L. Ooi & Thao T.T. Le, 2015. "Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 87-125, March.
    54. Edward L. Glaeser & Todd Sinai, 2013. "Housing and the Financial Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glae11-1, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J Lansing & Gisle James Natvik, 2018. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1350-1393.
    2. Chi-Young Choi & Soojin Jo, 2020. "How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities," Globalization Institute Working Papers 398, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Miroslav Gabrovski & Victor Ortego-Marti, 2018. "Search and Credit Frictions in the Housing Market," Working Papers 201816, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    4. Hull, Isaiah, 2015. "What Broke First? Characterizing Sources of Structural Change Prior to the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 301, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Bechlioulis, Alexandros P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N., 2019. "Consumer debt non-payment and the borrowing constraint: Implications for consumer behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 161-172.
    6. Tang, Yang & Zeng, Ting & Zhu, Shenghao, 2020. "Bubbles and house price dispersion in the United States during 1975–2017," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Nelson Lind, 2017. "Credit Regimes and the Seeds of Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 1474, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Kevin J. Lansing, 2017. "Endogenous Regime Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2017-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Olivier Mesly & David W. Shanafelt & Nicolas Huck, 2020. "Dysfunctional markets: A spray of prey perspective," Working Papers of BETA 2020-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing bubbles; Mortgage debt; Borrowing constraints; Lending standards; macroprudential policy.;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2015-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.