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House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations

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  • Granziera, Eleonora
  • Kozicki, Sharon

Abstract

We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. First, a stylized asset-pricing model solved under rational expectations is used to derive a fundamental value for house prices and the price–rent ratio. Although the model can explain the sample average of the price–rent ratio, it does not generate the large and persistent fluctuations observed in the data. Then, we consider a rational bubble solution, an extrapolative expectations solution and a near rational bubble solution. In this last solution agents extrapolate the future from the latest realizations and the degree of extrapolation is stronger in good times than in bad times, generating waves of over-optimism. We show that under this solution the model not only is able to match key moments of the data but can also replicate the run up in the U.S. house prices observed over the 2000–2006 period and the subsequent sharp downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:60:y:2015:i:c:p:152-165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.09.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Lucas asset-pricing model; Rational expectations; Near rational expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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