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Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

  • Robin Greenwood
  • Andrei Shleifer

We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.

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File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/shleifer/node/102501
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Paper provided by Harvard University OpenScholar in its series Working Paper with number 102501.

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  23. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1998. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good To Be True?," NBER Working Papers 6354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  27. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
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  30. Deepa Dhume Datta & Wenxin Du, 2012. "Nonparametric HAC estimation for time series data with missing observations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1060, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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