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Explaining House Price Fluctuations

  • Christian Hott

A comparison of fundamental house prices with actual prices indicates that house prices fluctuate more than fundamentally justified. This fact is very hard to explain with standard rational agent models. This paper develops a housing market model that allows to examine the price effects of various kinds of agents' expectations. In this framework I we show that the consideration of behavioural aspects like herding behaviour, speculation and momentum trading can help to explain actual house price fluctuations. Following the different approaches, agents overreact to fundamentals and are influenced by past price movements and returns.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2009-05.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2009-05
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  1. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2003. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," NBER Working Papers 9462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September.
  4. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
  5. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
  6. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
  8. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
  9. Levin, Eric J. & Wright, Robert E., 1997. "The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 567-585, October.
  10. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," NBER Working Papers 12810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
  12. Holly, Sean & Jones, Natasha, 1997. "House prices since the 1940s: Cointegration, demography and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 549-565, October.
  13. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
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