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A model of mortgage losses and its applications for macroprudential instruments

  • Hott, Christian

We develop a theoretical model of mortgage loss rates that evaluates their main underlying risk factors. Following the model, loss rates are positively influenced by the house price level, the loan-to-value of mortgages, interest rates, and the unemployment rate. They are negatively influenced by the growth of house prices and the income level. The calibration of the model for the US and Switzerland demonstrates that it is able to describe the overall development of actual mortgage loss rates. In addition, we show potential applications of the model for different macroprudential instruments: stress tests, countercyclical buffer, and setting risk weights for mortgages with different loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 34/2013.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:342013
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  1. Andrew F. Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?," Staff Reports 341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  3. Campbell, John & Cocco, Joao, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," Scholarly Articles 3157876, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
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  8. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2011. "A Model of Mortgage Default," NBER Working Papers 17516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bart Lambrecht & William Perraudin & Stephen Satchell, 1996. "Time to Default in the U.K. Mortgage Market," Archive Working Papers 016, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  10. Qi, Min & Yang, Xiaolong, 2009. "Loss given default of high loan-to-value residential mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 788-799, May.
  11. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  12. Poterba, James M, 1992. "Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 237-42, May.
  13. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
  14. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Working Paper 9094, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  15. David Miles, 2005. "Incentives Information and Efficiency in the UK Mortgage Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C82-C98, 03.
  16. Hott, C., 2011. "Lending behavior and real estate prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2429-2442, September.
  17. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
  18. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Sirmans, C.F., 2007. "Depreciation of housing capital, maintenance, and house price inflation: Estimates from a repeat sales model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 193-217, March.
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