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A model of mortgage losses and its applications for macroprudential instruments

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  • Hott, Christian

Abstract

We develop a theoretical model of mortgage loss rates that evaluates their main underlying risk factors. Following the model, loss rates are positively influenced by the house price level, the loan-to-value of mortgages, interest rates, and the unemployment rate. They are negatively influenced by the growth of house prices and the income level. The calibration of the model for the US and Switzerland demonstrates that it is able to describe the overall development of actual mortgage loss rates. In addition, we show potential applications of the model for different macroprudential instruments: stress tests, countercyclical buffer, and setting risk weights for mortgages with different loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Hott, Christian, 2013. "A model of mortgage losses and its applications for macroprudential instruments," Discussion Papers 34/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:342013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hott, C., 2011. "Lending behavior and real estate prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2429-2442, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siemsen, Thomas & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2017. "A stress test framework for the German residential mortgage market: Methodology and application," Discussion Papers 37/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage Market; Credit Risk; Macroprudential Instruments;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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