IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/172019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stress testing the German mortgage market

Author

Listed:
  • Barasinska, Nataliya
  • Haenle, Philipp
  • Koban, Anne
  • Schmidt, Alexander

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for estimating losses in the residential real estate mortgage portfolios of German banks. We develop an EL model where LGD estimates are based on current collateral values and PD dynamics are estimated using a structural PVAR approach. We confirm empirically that foreclosure rates are rising with the unemployment rate and are inversely related to house price inflation. Being consistent with our expectation that strategic defaults do not play a central role given the full personal liability of German households, the results give broad support for the double-trigger hypothesis of mortgage defaults. In order to analyse the possible credit losses stemming from residential mortgage lending we then use the model to run a top-down stress test and simulate losses on the individual bank level for the years from 2018 to 2020 for the whole German banking sector. Our results show that loss rates in the residential mortgage portfolios of German banks do increase significantly in an adverse economic environment. The estimated expected losses are widely distributed in the banking system leading, on average, to a 0.4 percentage points reduction in the CET1 ratio over the simulation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Barasinska, Nataliya & Haenle, Philipp & Koban, Anne & Schmidt, Alexander, 2019. "Stress testing the German mortgage market," Discussion Papers 17/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:172019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/197962/1/1667235036.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brent W. Ambrose & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2013. "House Prices and Fundamentals: 355 Years of Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 477-491, March.
    2. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2010. "The Duration of Foreclosures in the Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model with Mixing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 109-129, February.
    3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
    4. Clauretie, Terrence M & Herzog, Thomas N, 1990. "The Effect of State Foreclosure Laws on Loan Losses: Evidence from the Mortgage Insurance Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 221-233, May.
    5. Shubhasis Dey & Ramdane Djoudad & Yaz Terajima, 2008. "A Tool for Assessing Financial Vulnerabilities in the Household Sector," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Summer), pages 47-56.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 2018. "What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    8. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2013. "Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 101-128, July.
    9. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IMFS Working Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    10. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    11. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William & Satchell, Stephen, 1997. "Time to default in the UK mortgage market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 485-499, October.
    12. Katrin Assenmacher & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
    13. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    14. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
    15. Ramdane Djoudad, 2011. "A framework to assess vulnerabilities arising from household indebtedness using microdata," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 151-168, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Kristina Tobio, 2012. "Housing Booms and City Centers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 127-133, May.
    17. Rodriguez, Adolfo & Trucharte, Carlos, 2007. "Loss coverage and stress testing mortgage portfolios: A non-parametric approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 342-367, December.
    18. Siemsen, Thomas & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2017. "A stress test framework for the German residential mortgage market: Methodology and application," Discussion Papers 37/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Thomas Schelkle, 2018. "Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1101-1137, September.
    20. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    21. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    22. Matteo Iacoviello, 2011. "Housing wealth and consumption," International Finance Discussion Papers 1027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2012/217, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    25. Terrence M. Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2009. "Estimating the House Foreclosure Discount Corrected for Spatial Price Interdependence and Endogeneity of Marketing Time," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 43-67, March.
    26. Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2021. "The Sensitivity of Housing Demand to Financing Conditions: Evidence from a Survey," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 231-265, February.
    27. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    28. Gaffney, Edward & Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2014. "A transitions-based framework for estimating expected credit losses," Research Technical Papers 16/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    29. Qi, Min & Yang, Xiaolong, 2009. "Loss given default of high loan-to-value residential mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 788-799, May.
    30. Nicolas Albacete & Judith Eidenberger & Gerald Krenn & Peter Lindner & Michael Sigmund, 2014. "Risk-Bearing Capacity of Households – Linking Micro-Level Data to the Macroprudential Toolkit," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 27, pages 95-110.
    31. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2012. "Getting Up to Speed on the Financial Crisis: A One-Weekend-Reader's Guide," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 128-150, March.
    32. Vassilis Lekkas & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 1993. "Loan Loss Severity and Optimal Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 353-371, December.
    33. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:477-491 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Calem, Paul S. & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2004. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 647-672, March.
    35. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats économiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
    36. Matthew Read & Chris Stewart & Gianni La Cava, 2014. "Mortgage-related Financial Difficulties: Evidence from Australian Micro-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    37. Ampudia, Miguel & Ehrmann, Michael, 2017. "Macroeconomic experiences and risk taking of euro area households," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 146-156.
    38. Hott, Christian, 2015. "A model of mortgage losses and its applications for macroprudential instruments," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-194.
    39. Peter-Hendrik Ingermann & Frederik Hesse & Christian Bélorgey & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "The recovery rate for retail and commercial customers in Germany: a look at collateral and its adjusted market values," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(2), pages 179-228, August.
    40. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).
    41. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
    42. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo, 2012. "Conditional forecasts on SVAR models using the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 376-378.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fuad Ganbarov & Klaudia Smoląg & Rashad Muradov & Konul Aghayeva & Rumella Jafarova & Yashar Mammadov, 2020. "Sustainable Development of the Mortgage Market in Azerbaijan: Commercial Risks of Housing Construction, Social Vision, and State Influence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Pelzer, Manuel & Barasinska, Nataliya & Buchholz, Manuel & Friedrich, Sören & Geiger, Sebastian & Hristov, Nikolay & Jamaldeen, Philip & Löffler, Axel & Madjarac, Marcel & Roth, Markus & Silbermann, L, 2021. "Deleveraging-Potenzial im deutschen Bankensystem und Auswirkungen auf die Finanzstabilität [Potential deleveraging in the German banking system and effects on financial stability]," Technical Papers 12/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Barasinska, Nataliya & Ludwig, Johannes & Vogel, Edgar, 2021. "The impact of borrower-based instruments on household vulnerability in Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Ter Steege, Lucas & Vogel, Edgar, 2021. "German residential real estate valuation under NGFS climate scenarios," Technical Papers 09/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nataliya Barasinska & Philipp Haenle & Anne Koban & Alexander Schmidt, 2023. "No Reason to Worry About German Mortgages? An Analysis of Macroeconomic and Individual Drivers of Credit Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 369-399, December.
    2. Hung Xuan Do & Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2020. "Liquidity Constraints, Home Equity and Residential Mortgage Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 208-246, August.
    3. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    4. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    5. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    6. Hott, Christian, 2015. "A model of mortgage losses and its applications for macroprudential instruments," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-194.
    7. Siemsen, Thomas & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2017. "A stress test framework for the German residential mortgage market: Methodology and application," Discussion Papers 37/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    9. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    10. Lin, Che-Chun & Prather, Larry J. & Chu, Ting-Heng & Tsay, Jing-Tang, 2013. "Differential default risk among traditional and non-traditional mortgage products and capital adequacy standards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-122.
    11. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross-country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2750, CESifo.
    12. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2021. "Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 38(02), pages 279-317, September.
    13. Rubio, Margarita, 2019. "Monetary And Macroprudential Policies Under Fixed And Variable Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1024-1061, April.
    14. Ørjan Robstad, 2014. "House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models," Working Paper 2014/05, Norges Bank.
    15. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    16. Qi, Min & Yang, Xiaolong, 2009. "Loss given default of high loan-to-value residential mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 788-799, May.
    17. Chintal Desai & Gregory Elliehausen & Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2013. "Effects of Bankruptcy Exemptions and Foreclosure Laws on Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 391-415, October.
    18. Hülsewig, Oliver & Rottmann, Horst, 2021. "Euro area house prices and unconventional monetary policy surprises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    19. Gregory H. Bauer & Eleonora Granziera, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Private Debt, and Financial Stability Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 337-373, September.
    20. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    residential real estate; mortgages; credit risk; stress testing; German banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:172019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.