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The duration of foreclosures in the subprime mortgage market: a competing risks model with mixing

  • Anthony Pennington-Cross

This paper examines what happens to mortgages in the subprime mortgage market once foreclosure proceeding are initiated. A multinominial logit model that allows for the interdependence of the possible outcomes or risks (cure, partial cure, paid off, and real estate owned) through the correlation of associated unobserved heterogeneities is estimated. The results show that the duration of foreclosures is impacted by many factors including contemporaneous housing market conditions, the prior performance of the loan (prior delinquency), and the state-level legal environment.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2006/2006-027.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-027.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-027
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  1. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The Value of Foreclosed Property," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(2), pages 193-214.
  2. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
  3. John Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2005. "Unobserved heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Working Paper 8585, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  4. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2004. "Optimal Stopping and Losses on Subprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 115-131, November.
  5. Lambrecht, Bart M & Perraudin, William R M & Satchell, Steven, 2003. " Mortgage Default and Possession under Recourse: A Competing Hazards Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 425-42, June.
  6. Harding, John P. & Miceli, Thomas J. & Sirmans, C. F., 2000. "Deficiency Judgments and Borrower Maintenance: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 267-285, December.
  7. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
  8. Wen, Chieh-Hua & Koppelman, Frank S., 2001. "The generalized nested logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 627-641, August.
  9. Brent W. Ambrose & Charles A. Capone, . "The Hazard Rates of First and Second Default," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 301, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Lawrence, Edward C & Arshadi, Nasser, 1995. "A Multinomial Logit Analysis of Problem Loan Resolution Choices in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 202-16, February.
  11. Michelle A. Danis & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "A dynamic look at subprime loan performance," Working Papers 2005-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Brent W. Ambrose & Charles A. Capone, 1998. "Modeling the Conditional Probability of Foreclosure in the Context of Single-Family Mortgage Default Resolutions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 391-429.
  13. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  14. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2006. "Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 241-258, November.
  15. Ko Wang & Leslie Young & Yuqing Zhou, 2002. "Nondiscriminating Foreclosure and Voluntary Liquidating Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 959-985.
  16. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-25, August.
  17. Brent Ambrose & Anthony Sanders, 2004. "Legal Restrictions in Personal Loan Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-151, November.
  18. Karen M. Pence, 2003. "Foreclosing on opportunity: state laws and mortgage credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Richard A. Phillips & Eric M. Rosenblatt, 1997. "The Legal Environment and the Choice of Default Resolution Alternatives: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(2), pages 145-154.
  20. Richard A. Phillips & James H. VanderHoff, 2004. "The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-587, December.
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