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The delinquency of subprime mortgages

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  • Michelle A. Danis
  • Anthony Pennington-Cross

Abstract

This paper focuses on understanding the determinants of the performance of subprime mortgages. A growing body of literature recognizes the substantial lag between the time that a borrower stops making payments on a mortgage and the termination of the loan. The duration of this lag and the method by which the delinquency is ultimately terminated play a critical role in the costs borne by both borrower and lender. Using nested and multinomial logit, we find that delinquency and default are sensitive to current economic conditions and housing markets. Credit scores and loan characteristics also play important roles.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle A. Danis & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Working Papers 2005-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Niu, Yi & Ding, Chengri, 2015. "Unemployment matters: Improved measures of labor market distress in mortgage default analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 27-38.
    2. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Russell Kashian & David Welsch, 2008. "A Regional Examination of Foreclosures," Working Papers 08-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    4. João Rebelo & José Vaz Caldas, 2010. "Default Mortgage Profile: A Micro Analysis Of The Portuguese Case," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 109-125.
    5. Frame, W. Scott & Gerardi, Kristopher S. & Willen, Paul S., 2015. "The Failure of supervisory stress testing: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and OFHEO," Working Papers 15-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Maximilian Schmeiser & Matthew Gross, 2016. "The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    7. Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(24), pages 1925-1945.
    8. Christopher Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul Willen, 2010. "Reducing Foreclosures: No Easy Answers," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 89-138 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
    10. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological Change, Financial Innovation, and Diffusion in Banking," Working Papers 09-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:bap:journl:170404 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    13. Lanot, Gauthier & Leece, David, 2010. "The Performance of UK Securitized Subprime Mortgage Debt: ‘Idiosyncratic’ Behaviour or Mortgage Design?," MPRA Paper 27137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Raphael Bostic & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Kathleen Engel & Patricia McCoy & Anthony Pennington-Cross & Susan Wachter, 2012. "Mortgage Product Substitution and State Anti-predatory Lending Laws: Better Loans and Better Borrowers?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(3), pages 273-294, September.
    15. Paul Carrillo, 2013. "Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 36-64, July.
    16. Swan, Peter L., 2009. "The political economy of the subprime crisis: Why subprime was so attractive to its creators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 124-132, March.
    17. Scheicher, Martin & Fender, Ingo, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Working Paper Series 1056, European Central Bank.
    18. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2015. "Effects of prepayment regulations on termination of subprime mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 445-456.
    19. O. Emre Ergungor & Stephanie Moulton, 2011. "Beyond the transaction: depository institutions and reduced mortgage default for low-income homebuyers," Working Paper 1115, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Gregory Elliehausen, 2014. "The Economic Effects of Legal Restrictions on High-Cost Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 47-72, July.
    21. Ambrose, Brent W. & Diop, Moussa, 2014. "Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 114-135.
    22. Been, Vicki & Weselcouch, Mary & Voicu, Ioan & Murff, Scott, 2013. "Determinants of the incidence of U.S. Mortgage Loan Modifications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3951-3973.
    23. Morgan J. Rose, 2011. "Prepayment Penalties: Efficieny and Predation," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 11-133, UMBC Department of Economics.
    24. Sewin Chan & Claudia Sharygin & Vicki Been & Andrew Haughwout, 2014. "Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 342-379, February.

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    Keywords

    Mortgages ; Subprime mortgage;

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