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Cost-Benefit Analysis of Single-Family Foreclosure Alternatives

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  • Ambrose, Brent W
  • Capone, Charles A, Jr

Abstract

Over the last ten years, single-family mortgage lenders have become more aware of the financial benefits of finding alternatives to foreclosure for borrowers who default on their mortgage obligations. In this article, expected costs of foreclosure alternatives are parameterized to solve for minimum probabilities of borrower success necessary to make pursuing them profitable for lenders. These break-even probabilities are found to be very insensitive to changes in a variety of factors, including interest-rate environments and time horizons. Simulations are performed across house-price-deflation scenarios, loan-to-value ratios, and post-default cure rates. Stochastic processes are introduced through time distributions for foreclosure processing, property disposition, and house-price appreciation. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Single-Family Foreclosure Alternatives," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 105-120, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:13:y:1996:i:2:p:105-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francine D. Blau & John W. Graham, 1990. "Black-White Differences in Wealth and Asset Composition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 321-339.
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    3. Long, James E & Caudill, Steven B, 1992. "Racial Differences in Homeownership and Housing Wealth, 1970-1986," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(1), pages 83-100, January.
    4. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
    5. DiPasquale, Denise & Glaeser, Edward L., 1999. "Incentives and Social Capital: Are Homeowners Better Citizens?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 354-384, March.
    6. Lewis M. Segal & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1998. "Trends in homeownership: race, demographics, and income," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 53-72.
    7. Robert B. Avery & Raphael W. Bostic & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 1999. "Trends in home purchase lending: consolidation and the Community Reinvestment Act," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 81-102.
    8. Robert B. Avery & Raphael W. Bostic & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 1996. "Credit risk, credit scoring, and the performance of home mortgages," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 621-648.
    9. Arthur B. Kennickell & Martha Starr-McCluer & Annika E. Sunden, 1997. "Family finances in the U.S.: recent evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-24.
    10. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenli Li & Florian Oswald, 2017. "Recourse and residential mortgages: The case of Nevada," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6ka8i7k76r8, Sciences Po.
    2. Wenli Li & Florian Oswald, 2017. "Recourse and residential mortgages: The case of Nevada," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5qjpn9qdt48, Sciences Po.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Lawrence Mielnicki, 2008. "Do Forbearance Plans Help Mitigate Credit Card Losses?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 191-201, June.
    4. Cowan, Kevin & Drexler, Alejandro & Yañez, Álvaro, 2015. "The effect of credit guarantees on credit availability and delinquency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 98-110.
    5. Zhang, Yan, 2013. "Does loan renegotiation differ by securitization status? A transition probability study," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 513-527.
    6. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.
    7. Maximilian D. Schmeiser & Matthew B. Gross, 2016. "The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    8. Steve Holden & Austin Kelly & Douglas McManus & Therese Scharlemann & Ryan Singer & John D. Worth, 2012. "The HAMP NPV Model: Development and Early Performance," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40, pages 32-64, December.
    9. J. Michael Collins & Carolina Reid, 2010. "Who receives a mortgage modification? Race and income differentials in loan workouts," Community Development Investment Center Working Paper 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Li, Wenli & Oswald, Florian, 2014. "Recourse and residential mortgages: the case of Nevada," Working Papers 15-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. repec:fip:fedreq:00044 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. O. Emre Ergungor, 2009. "Foreclosures in Ohio: does lender type matter?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    13. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    14. Karikari, John A., 2013. "Why homeowners’ documentation went missing under the Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP)?: An analysis of strategic behavior of homeowners and servicers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 146-162.
    15. Terrence Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2011. "The Optimal Choice for Lenders Facing Defaults: Short Sale, Foreclose, or REO," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 504-521, May.
    16. An, Xudong & Cordell, Lawrence R., 2017. "Regime Shift And The Post-Crisis World Of Mortgage Loss Severities," Working Papers 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    18. Michelle A. Danis & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "A dynamic look at subprime loan performance," Working Papers 2005-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Wolter, Marcus & Rösch, Daniel, 2014. "Cure events in default prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(3), pages 846-857.
    20. Doblas-Madrid, Antonio & Minetti, Raoul, 2013. "Sharing information in the credit market: Contract-level evidence from U.S. firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 198-223.
    21. repec:eee:juecon:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Danis, Michelle A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2008. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 67-90.
    23. Eddie Lam, 2002. "A Risk Management Model for MBS Issuers," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 169-195.
    24. Been, Vicki & Weselcouch, Mary & Voicu, Ioan & Murff, Scott, 2013. "Determinants of the incidence of U.S. Mortgage Loan Modifications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3951-3973.
    25. Russell, Blair D. & Moulton, Stephanie & Greenbaum, Robert T., 2014. "Take-up of mortgage assistance for distressed homeowners: The role of geographic accessibility," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 57-74.

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