IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhouse/v19y2010i4p280-294.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy

Author

Listed:
  • Goodman, Allen C.
  • Smith, Brent C.

Abstract

Using a national loan level data set we examine loan default as explained by local demographic characteristics and state level legislation that regulates foreclosure procedures and predatory lending, using a hierarchical linear model. When controlling for loan and local conditions, we observe significant variation in the default rate across states, with lower default levels in states with higher temporal and financial costs to lenders. State level legislative influences provide a foundation for discussion of national level policy that further regulates predatory lending and financial institution foreclosure activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:19:y:2010:i:4:p:280-294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051-1377(10)00042-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xudong An & Raphael Bostic, 2008. "GSE Activity, FHA Feedback, and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 207-231, February.
    2. Clauretie, Terrence M & Herzog, Thomas N, 1990. "The Effect of State Foreclosure Laws on Loan Losses: Evidence from the Mortgage Insurance Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 221-233, May.
    3. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr, 2000. "Embedded Options in the Mortgage Contract," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 95-111, September.
    4. James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551, September.
    5. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    6. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-299, August.
    7. von Furstenberg, George M & Green, R Jeffery, 1974. "Home Mortgage Delinquencies: A Cohort Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(5), pages 1545-1548, December.
    8. Anthony Pennington‐Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed‐Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426, September.
    9. Alex O. Williams & William Beranek & James Kenkel, 1974. "Default Risk in Urban Mortgages: A Pittsburgh Prototype Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 101-112, June.
    10. Kahn, Charles M & Yavas, Abdullah, 1994. "The Economic Role of Foreclosures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 35-51, January.
    11. Lawrence R. Cordell & Karen E. Dynan & Andreas Lehnert & J. Nellie Liang & Eileen Mauskopf, 2008. "The incentives of mortgage servicers: myths and realities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
    13. William P. Alexander & Scott D. Grimshaw & Grant R. McQueen & Barrett A. Slade, 2002. "Some Loans Are More Equal than Others: Third–Party Originations and Defaults in the Subprime Mortgage Industry," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 667-697.
    14. Keith D. Harvey & Peter J. Nigro, 2003. "How Do Predatory Lending Laws Influence Mortgage Lending in Urban Areas? A Tale of Two Cities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 25(4), pages 479-508.
    15. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2006. "Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 241-258, November.
    16. Ho, Giang & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2006. "The impact of local predatory lending laws on the flow of subprime credit," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 210-228, September.
    17. Meador, Mark, 1982. "The effects of mortgage laws on home mortgage rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-148.
    18. Keith D. Harvey & Peter J. Nigro, 2004. "Do Predatory Lending Laws Influence Mortgage Lending? An Analysis of the North Carolina Predatory Lending Law," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 435-456, December.
    19. Gregory Elliehausen & Michael E. Staten, 2004. "Regulation of Subprime Mortgage Products: An Analysis of North Carolina's Predatory Lending Law," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 411-433, December.
    20. Chester Foster & Robert Van Order, 1985. "FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 273-291, September.
    21. Rose, Morgan J., 2008. "Predatory lending practices and subprime foreclosures: Distinguishing impacts by loan category," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 13-32.
    22. Bostic, Raphael W. & Engel, Kathleen C. & McCoy, Patricia A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony & Wachter, Susan M., 2008. "State and local anti-predatory lending laws: The effect of legal enforcement mechanisms," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 47-66.
    23. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263, September.
    24. Richard A. Phillips & James H. VanderHoff, 2004. "The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-587, December.
    25. Stanley D. Longhofer & Stephen R. Peters, 2005. "Self-Selection and Discrimination in Credit Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 237-268, June.
    26. Kelly D. Edmiston & Roger Zalneraitis, 2007. "Rising foreclosures in the United States: a perfect storm," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 115-145.
    27. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-325, August.
    28. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 1998. "Housing Market Segmentation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 121-143, June.
    29. Elliehausen, Gregory & Staten, Michael E. & Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2008. "The effect of prepayment penalties on the pricing of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 33-46.
    30. Elizabeth Renuart, 2004. "An overview of the predatory mortgage lending process," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 467-502.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Allen C. Goodman & Brent C Smith, 2023. "Medical Service Quality and Office Rent Premiums: Reputation Spillovers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 680-708, April.
    2. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2020. "Achieving Effective Mortgage Modifications: The Importance of Household Characteristics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 151-182, August.
    3. Bruce Gordon & Daniel Winkler, 2015. "Statutory Right of Redemption and the Selling Price of Foreclosed Houses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 365-397, October.
    4. Anping Chen & Marlon Boarnet & Mark Partridge & Haifang Huang & Brad R. Humphreys, 2014. "New Sports Facilities And Residential Housing Markets," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 629-663, September.
    5. Huang, Haifang & Humphreys, Brad, 2012. "Do New Sports Facilities Revitalize Urban Neighborhoods? Evidence from Residential Mortgage Applications," Working Papers 2012-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    6. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2015. "A New Look at the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis: Panel Data Evidence of Prime and Subprime Borrowers from 1997 to 2012," NBER Working Papers 21261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Rui Pascoal, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors of Household Default. Is There Myopic Behaviour?," GEMF Working Papers 2012-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    8. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2017. "Mortgage Payment Problem Development and Recovery: A Joint Probability Model Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 476-510, November.
    9. Bhattacharya, Arnab & Wilson, Simon P. & Soyer, Refik, 2019. "A Bayesian approach to modeling mortgage default and prepayment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1112-1124.
    10. Rogers, William H. & Winkler, Anne E., 2013. "The Relationship between the Housing & Labor Market Crises and Doubling-Up: An MSA-Level Analysis, 2005-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 7263, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Huang, Haifang & Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2014. "Urban Casinos and Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the US," Working Papers 2014-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allen C. Goodman & Brent C. Smith, 2010. "Housing default: theory works and so does policy," Working Paper 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological change, financial innovation, and diffusion in banking," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Gregory Elliehausen, 2014. "The Economic Effects of Legal Restrictions on High-Cost Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 47-72, July.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. Smith, Brent C, 2011. "Stability in consumer credit scores: Level and direction of FICO score drift as a precursor to mortgage default and prepayment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 285-298.
    6. O. Emre Ergungor, 2009. "Foreclosures in Ohio: does lender type matter?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    7. Fang, Lu & Munneke, Henry J., 2021. "A spatial analysis of borrowers’ mortgage termination decision – A nonparametric approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Brent C Smith & Kenneth N. Daniels, 2018. "Unintended Consequences of Risk Based Pricing: Racial Differences in Mortgage Costs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 323-343, December.
    9. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2015. "Effects of prepayment regulations on termination of subprime mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 445-456.
    10. Quinn Curtis, 2014. "State Foreclosure Laws and Mortgage Origination in the Subprime," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 303-328, October.
    11. Aidong Adam Ding & Shaonan Tian & Yan Yu & Xinlei Zhao, 2022. "Does judicial foreclosure procedure help delinquent subprime mortgage borrowers?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 382-422, June.
    12. Giang Ho & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "The impact of local predatory lending laws," Working Papers 2005-049, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai & Shan Jiang, 2021. "The Influences of Foreclosure Factors on the Value, Yield, Duration and Convexity of a Mortgage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 361-394, September.
    14. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    15. Kelly D. Edmiston & Roger Zalneraitis, 2007. "Rising foreclosures in the United States: a perfect storm," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 115-145.
    16. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    17. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2010. "The Duration of Foreclosures in the Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model with Mixing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 109-129, February.
    18. Zhang, Yan, 2013. "Does loan renegotiation differ by securitization status? A transition probability study," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 513-527.
    19. Li, Wenli & Oswald, Florian, 2017. "Recourse and residential mortgages: The case of Nevada," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Wenli Li & Florian Oswald, 2017. "Recourse and residential mortgages: The case of Nevada," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5qjpn9qdt48, Sciences Po.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:19:y:2010:i:4:p:280-294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.