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Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay

Author

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  • James B. Kau
  • Taewon Kim

Abstract

This paper analyzes the opportunity for early termination of a mortgage contract. We consider the possibility of defaulting on the property and explore the rules that are used by a value-maximizing borrower in exercising this option to default. The discussion centers on the value of waiting to make such a decision and the consequences of this rational inertia. We show that the observed delay in default usually attributed to transaction costs can instead be explained as entirely rational choice in a dynamic environment. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:22:y:1994:i:3:p:539-551
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chao Tian & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    2. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    3. Anthony Pennington-Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426.
    4. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2006. "Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 241-258, November.
    5. Michelle A. Danis & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "A dynamic look at subprime loan performance," Working Papers 2005-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Roberto G. Quercia & Anthony Pennington-Cross & Chao Yue Tian, 2016. "Differential Impacts of Structural and Cyclical Unemployment on Mortgage Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 346-367, October.
    7. Austin Kelly, 2007. "Zero Down Payment Mortgage Default," FHFA Staff Working Papers 07-05, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    8. Yuan Cheng & Xuehui Han, 2013. "Does large volatility help?—stochastic population forecasting technology in explaining real estate price process," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 323-356, January.
    9. Buttimer, Richard Jr. & Lin, Che-Chun, 2005. "Valuing US and Canadian mortgage servicing rights with default and prepayment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 194-211, September.
    10. Seow Ong & Poh Neo & Yong Tu, 2008. "Foreclosure Sales: The Effects of Price Expectations, Volatility and Equity Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 265-287, April.
    11. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    12. Lynn Fisher, 2006. "Renegotiation in the Common Law Mortgage and the Impact of Equitable Redemption," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 61-82, February.
    13. Danis, Michelle A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2008. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 67-90.
    14. Seung Dong You, 2014. "The Leveraged City," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1042-1066, December.
    15. Wenli Li & Ishani Tewari & Michelle J. White, 2014. "Using Bankruptcy to Reduce Foreclosures: Does Strip-down of Mortgages Affect the Supply of Mortgage Credit?," NBER Working Papers 19952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Allen C. Goodman & Brent C. Smith, 2010. "Housing default: theory works and so does policy," Working Paper 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. O. Emre Ergungor, 2009. "Foreclosures in Ohio: does lender type matter?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    18. Shuang Zhu & R. Pace & Walter Morales, 2014. "Using Housing Futures in Mortgage Research," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-15, January.
    19. Chao Yue Tian & Roberto G. Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    20. Gordon W. Crawford & Eric Rosenblatt, 1995. "Efficient Mortgage Default Option Exercise: Evidence from Loss Severity," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(5), pages 543-556.
    21. Hoon Cho & Brian Ciochetti & James Shilling, 2013. "Are Commercial Mortgage Defaults Affected by Tax Considerations?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-23, January.
    22. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association-super-1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598.
    23. Jang Jiwook, 2009. "The Cost of Delay in a Mortgage/Credit Loan Portfolio," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, November.
    24. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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