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Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities

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  • James B. Kau
  • Donald C. Keenan
  • Taewon Kim

Abstract

The same option-based methodology now commonly used to value mortgages and their termination features also can be applied to calculate the probabilities that mortgage default will occur. This paper pursues that idea, and furthermore, enriches the idealized option-based approach by introducing both transaction costs and "suboptimal" termination. These latter features capture the individual considerations that cause a mortgage holder's actions to differ from what rationality would indicate based solely on the market value of the mortgage. These features are of considerable importance if the results of options-based models are to be made comparable to those calculations of default probabilities occurring in the empirical literature. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:21:y:1993:i:3:p:247-263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John M. Quigley & Robert Order, 1990. "Efficiency in the Mortgage Market: The Borrower's Perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 237-252.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chao Tian & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    2. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    3. Russell Kashian & David Welsch, 2008. "A Regional Examination of Foreclosures," Working Papers 08-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    4. Richard K. Green & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2010. "Sunk Costs and Mortgage Default," Working Paper 9097, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    5. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
    6. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.
    7. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    8. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9597-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Seung Dong You, 2014. "The Leveraged City," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1042-1066, December.
    10. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240.
    11. Agarwal, Sumit & Green, Richard K. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Collateral pledge, sunk-cost fallacy and mortgage default," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 636-652.
    12. Allen C. Goodman & Brent C. Smith, 2010. "Housing default: theory works and so does policy," Working Paper 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Jou, Jyh-Bang & Lee, Tan (Charlene), 2016. "How does statutory redemption affect a buyer's decision at the foreclosure sale?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 263-272.
    14. George H. Lentz & Ko Wang, 1998. "Residential Appraisal and the Lending Process: A Survey of Issues," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 11-40.
    15. O. Emre Ergungor, 2009. "Foreclosures in Ohio: does lender type matter?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    16. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2008. "Default, Credit Scoring, and Loan-to-Value: a Theoretical Analysis under Competitive and Non-Competitive Mortgage Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 161-190.
    17. Richard Anderson & James VanderHoff, 1999. "Mortgage Default Rates and Borrower Race," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 279-290.
    18. Gerardi, Kristopher & Herkenhoff, Kyle F. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Jun 2017.
    19. Crook, Jonathan & Banasik, John, 2012. "Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 145-160.
    20. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    21. Eddie Lam, 2002. "A Risk Management Model for MBS Issuers," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 169-195.
    22. Shuang Zhu & R. Pace, 2014. "Modeling Spatially Interdependent Mortgage Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 598-620, November.
    23. Chao Yue Tian & Roberto G. Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    24. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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