IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sos/sosjrn/190102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Analysis of Defaults and Prepayments in the Turkish Mortgage Market

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuf VARLI
  • Gökhan ÖVENÇ

Abstract

We analyze the determinants of default and prepayment in the Turkish mortgage market by utilizing data obtained from a large commercial bank. Our main findings suggest that default is positively affected by a high loan to value ratio and term length of mortgages, and negatively affected by certain quantitative easing periods, good expectations regarding the future, the ratio of real house prices to the size of the economy and mortgage customer’s high school and above level of education and being married. The probability of prepayment rises with the increase in variables such as the gain ratio due to prepayment, high school and above level of education of the mortgage customer, size of the GDP and the ratio of real house prices to GDP. We also find that the likelihoods of both the cases of default and prepayment are locally maximized when nearly 60% of the term is reached.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf VARLI & Gökhan ÖVENÇ, 2019. "Dynamic Analysis of Defaults and Prepayments in the Turkish Mortgage Market," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(39).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:190102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/629758
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Kalotay & Deane Yang & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2004. "An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model For Mortgages And Mortgage-Backed Securities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(08), pages 949-978.
    2. Frank J. Navratil, 1985. "The Estimation Of Mortgage Prepayment Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 107-117, June.
    3. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    4. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    5. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    6. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    7. John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 1990. "Efficiency in the Mortgage Market: The Borrower's Perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 237-252, September.
    8. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    10. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
    11. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    12. Vandell, Kerry D, 1978. "Default Risk under Alternative Mortgage Instruments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 1279-1296, December.
    13. Andrew Haughwout & Ebiere Okah & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "Second Chances: Subprime Mortgage Modification and Redefault," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 771-793, June.
    14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    15. Ambrose, Brent W & Sanders, Anthony B, 2003. "Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment and Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-196, March-May.
    16. Eric Doviak & Sean MacDonald, 2012. "Who Defaults on their Home Mortgage?," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 43(1), pages 75-98.
    17. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    18. Campbell, Tim S & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1983. "The Determinants of Default on Insured Conventional Residential Mortgage Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1569-1581, December.
    19. Erol, Isil & Patel, Kanak, 2005. "Default risk of wage-indexed payment mortgage in Turkey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-293, September.
    20. Pan Kang & Stavros A. Zenios, 1992. "Complete Prepayment Models for Mortgage-Backed Securities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1665-1685, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    2. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    3. Steven Laufer, 2018. "Equity Extraction and Mortgage Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 1-33, April.
    4. Anil Kumar, 2018. "Do Restrictions on Home Equity Extraction Contribute to Lower Mortgage Defaults? Evidence from a Policy Discontinuity at the Texas Border," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 268-297, February.
    5. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    6. Carlos Hatchondo, Juan & Martinez, Leonardo & Sánchez, Juan M., 2015. "Mortgage defaults," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 173-190.
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Juan M. Sanchez, 2011. "Mortgage defaults," Working Papers 2011-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
      • Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Mr. Juan M. Sanchez, 2012. "Mortgage Defaults," IMF Working Papers 2012/026, International Monetary Fund.
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Juan M. Sanchez, 2011. "Mortgage defaults," Working Paper 11-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Juan M. Sanchez, 2015. "Mortgage Defaults," CAEPR Working Papers 2015-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    7. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    9. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    10. Agatha M. Poroshina, 2014. "Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 30/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Thomas Schelkle, 2018. "Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1101-1137, September.
    12. Maximilian Schmeiser & Matthew Gross, 2016. "The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    13. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 141-159, September.
    14. Paul E. Carrillo & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2023. "House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 747-782, June.
    15. Alin Marius Andries & Anca Copaciu & Radu Popa & Razvan Vlahu, 2021. "Recourse and (strategic) mortgage defaults: Evidence from changes in housing market laws," Working Papers 727, DNB.
    16. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joël, 2015. "The credit-risk implications of home ownership promotion: The effects of public subsidies and adjustable-rate loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 103-120.
    17. Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu & Jia Xie, 2015. "Immigrants and Mortgage Delinquency in the United States," Staff Working Papers 15-1, Bank of Canada.
    18. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    19. Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, 2022. "The effect of changing mortgage payments on default and prepayment: Evidence from HAMP resets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1231-1256, September.
    20. Guiso, Luigi & Zingales, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola, 2009. "Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages," CEPR Discussion Papers 7352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:190102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aysen Sivrikaya (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sosyoekonomijournal.org/home.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.