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The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City

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  • Chan, Sewin
  • Gedal, Michael
  • Been, Vicki
  • Haughwout, Andrew

Abstract

Using a rich database of non-prime mortgages from New York City, we find that census tract level neighborhood characteristics are important predictors of default behavior, even after controlling for an extensive set of controls for loan and borrower characteristics. First, default rates increase with the rate of foreclosure notices and the number of lender-owned properties (REOs) in the tract. Second, default rates on home purchase mortgages are higher in census tracts with larger shares of black residents, regardless of the borrower’s own race. We explore possible explanations for this second finding and conclude that it likely reflects differential treatment of black neighborhoods by the mortgage industry in ways that are unobserved in our data.

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  • Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:22:y:2013:i:2:p:100-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2013.03.003
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    3. Emily S. Taylor Poppe, 2016. "Homeowner Representation in the Foreclosure Crisis," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 809-836, December.
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    6. Schweikert, Jochen & Höchstötter, Markus, 2018. "Epidemiological spreading of mortgage default," Working Paper Series in Economics 112, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Bouras, Christos & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Lesame, Keagile, 2023. "Forecasting state- and MSA-level housing returns of the US: The role of mortgage default risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. J. Michael Collins & Carolina Reid, 2010. "Who receives a mortgage modification? Race and income differentials in loan workouts," Community Development Working Paper 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats économiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
    10. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2020. "Achieving Effective Mortgage Modifications: The Importance of Household Characteristics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 151-182, August.
    11. Chan, Sewin & Haughwout, Andrew & Tracy, Joseph, 2015. "How Mortgage Finance Affects the Urban Landscape," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 987-1045, Elsevier.
    12. Disli, Mustafa & Jalaly, Shakir, 2024. "The performance of Islamic and conventional microfinance loans in Afghanistan: The Taliban and beyond," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joël, 2015. "The credit-risk implications of home ownership promotion: The effects of public subsidies and adjustable-rate loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 103-120.
    14. Saty Patrabansh, 2015. "The Marginal Effect of First-Time Homebuyer Status on Mortgage Default and Prepayment," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    15. Chernick, Howard & Reschovsky, Andrew & Newman, Sandra, 2021. "The effect of the housing crisis on the finances of central cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Patricia D. Posey, 2023. "Information Inequality: How Race and Financial Access Reflect the Information Needs of Lower-Income Individuals," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 707(1), pages 125-141, May.
    17. Stephen L. Ross & Yuan Wang, 2022. "Mortgage Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures," Working Papers 2022-001, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    18. Selma Hepp, 2013. "Foreclosures and Metropolitan Spatial Structure: Establishing the Connection," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 497-520, July.
    19. Jacob W. Faber & Peter M. Rich, 2018. "Financially Overextended: College Attendance as a Contributor to Foreclosures During the Great Recession," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1727-1748, October.
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    21. Been, Vicki & Weselcouch, Mary & Voicu, Ioan & Murff, Scott, 2013. "Determinants of the incidence of U.S. Mortgage Loan Modifications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3951-3973.
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    23. Sewin Chan & Claudia Sharygin & Vicki Been & Andrew Haughwout, 2014. "Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 342-379, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage; Default; Neighborhoods; Race;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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