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Quick exits of subprime mortgages

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  • Yuliya Demyanyk

Abstract

All holders of mortgage contracts, regardless of type, have three options: keep their payments current, prepay (usually through refinancing), or default on the loan. The latter two options terminate the loan. The termination rates of subprime mortgages that originated each year from 2001 through 2006 are surprisingly similar: about 20, 50, and 80 percent, respectively, at one, two, and three years after origination. For loans originated when house prices appreciated the most, terminations were dominated by prepayments. For loans originated when the housing market slowed, defaults dominated. The similarity of the loan termination rates for all vintages in the sample suggests that subprime mortgage loans were intended to be "bridge" (i.e., temporary) loans. In addition, between 2001 and 2006, the number of terminated subprime purchase-money loans (loans used to purchase rather than refinance a house) outweighed the estimated number of first-time-homebuyers with subprime mortgages. The effect of the subprime lending on the increase of homeownership in the United States-a potentially positive outcome of subprime mortgages-most likely has been overstated.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuliya Demyanyk, 2009. "Quick exits of subprime mortgages," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 79-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2009:i:mar:p:79-94:n:v.91no.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yuliya Demyanyk & Dmytro Hryshko & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Bent E. Sørensen, 2017. "Moving to a Job: The Role of Home Equity, Debt, and Access to Credit," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 149-181, April.
    2. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    3. Mundra, Kusum, 2013. "Minority and Immigrant Homeownership Experience: Evidence from the 2009 American Housing Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 7131, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Ghent, Andra C. & Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T., 2014. "Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-215.
    5. Ruben Hernandez & Michael Owyang & Andra Ghent, 2011. "Race and Subprime Loan Pricing," ERSA conference papers ersa11p923, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Andra C. Ghent & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 820-854, November.
    7. D. Sornette & R. Woodard, "undated". "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Working Papers CCSS-09-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    8. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Papers 0905.0220, arXiv.org.
    9. John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2011. "Prepayment and delinquency in the mortgage crisis period," Working Paper Series 2011-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    Subprime mortgage;

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