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Prepayment and delinquency in the mortgage crisis period

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  • John Krainer
  • Elizabeth Laderman

Abstract

We study the interaction of borrower mortgage prepayment and mortgage delinquency during the period between 2001 and 2010. We show that when house prices flattened and began their subsequent decline, borrowers had increasingly slow prepayments and that this decline in prepayment rates roughly coincided with the sharp increase in their delinquency rates. Low credit score borrowers, in particular, display a pronounced negative correlation between default rates and prepayment rates. Shortfalls of actual prepayment rates from predicted rates based on an estimated prepayment model suggest that, in addition to the effects of declining house prices, tighter lending standards also may have played a role in weak prepayment activity.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2011. "Prepayment and delinquency in the mortgage crisis period," Working Paper Series 2011-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2011-25
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    10. John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2014. "Mortgage Loan Securitization and Relative Loan Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-66, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sumit Agarwal & Yongheng Deng & Jia He & Yonglin Wang & Qi Zhang, 2023. "Lenders’ pricing strategy: Do neighborhood risks matter?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1011-1047, July.
    2. Eszter Baranyai & Ádám Banai, 2022. "Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    4. Abdelsalam, Omneya & Elnahass, Marwa & Ahmed, Habib & Williams, Julian, 2022. "Asset securitizations and bank stability: Evidence from different banking systems," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Jian Chen & Jin Xiang & Tyler T. Yang, 2018. "Re-Default Risk of Modified Mortgages," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40.
    6. Matthew Read & Chris Stewart & Gianni La Cava, 2014. "Mortgage-related Financial Difficulties: Evidence from Australian Micro-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Sumit Agarwal & Swee Hoon Ang & Yongheng Deng & Yonglin Wang, 2021. "Mortgage Brokers and the Effectiveness of Regulatory Oversights," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5278-5300, August.
    8. Yue Li & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2022. "Mortgage prepayments and tax-exempted intergenerational transfers: from rich parents to rich children?," Working Papers 751, DNB.

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