Subprime mortgage default
This paper constructs a reduced-form credit risk model of mortgage default. The data used is of privately-securitized subprime ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages), originated between 1997 and 2008, and observed between 2000 and 2009. The period studied thus encompasses the beginning of the subprime crisis. Given the estimated model, contractual properties of the loans are then used to infer the market price of default risk for the various quarters of origination. It is empirically determined that a change in the inherent nature of borrowers led to a deterioration in their default performance, a change which can be first detected in late 2004. On the other hand, the evidence also indicates that the secondary mortgage market became aware of this change at about this same time. The large rise in defaults in 2007 cannot, therefore, be attributed to any surprise other than the unexpectedly large fall in housing prices.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhang, Michael Yuanjie & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2001. "A nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration model with applications to financial transaction data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 179-207, August.
- Ridder, Geert & Tunali, Insan, 1999.
"Stratified partial likelihood estimation,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 193-232, October.
- Pitt, Michael K, 2002. "Smooth Particle Filters for Likelihood Evaluation and Maximisation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 651, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997.
"Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's examples of Andrews-Ploberger test," Statistical Software Components RTZ00087, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2008.
"Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis,"
1092, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
- Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2009. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1998.
"Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
310., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Darrell DUFFIE & Andreas ECKNER & Guillaume HOREL & Leandro SAITA, "undated".
"Frailty Correlated Default,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
08-44, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008.
"Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, 03.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Deniz O Igan, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards; Evidence From the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Dell’Ariccia, G. & Igan, D. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards : Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Discussion Paper 2009-46 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008.
"Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2008.
"Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence,"
Public Policy Discussion Paper
08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
- John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005.
"A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Jin-Chuan Duan & Jean-Guy Simonato, 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Exponential Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. "Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-135, September.
- Andrew F. Haughwout & Ebiere Okah & Joseph Tracy, 2009.
"Second chances: subprime mortgage modification and re-default,"
417, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Andrew Haughwout & Ebiere Okah & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "Second Chances: Subprime Mortgage Modification and Redefault," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 771-793, 06.
- Vikrant Vig & Amit Seru & Tomasz Piskorski, 2009.
"Securitization and Distressed Loan Renegotiation: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis,"
2009 Meeting Papers
1169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010. "Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
- Paul S. Willen & Adam Hale Shapiro & Kristopher Gerardi, 2008.
"Subprime Outcomes: Risky Mortgages, Homeownership Experiences, and Foreclosures,"
2008 Meeting Papers
345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009.
"The Rise in Mortgage Defaults,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
- Nadauld, Taylor D. & Sherlund, Shane M., 2009.
"The Role of the Securitization Process in the Expansion of Subprime Credit,"
Working Paper Series
2009-9, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Taylor D. Nadauld & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The role of the securitization process in the expansion of subprime credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2006. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure when interest rates are close to zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1409-1424, October.
- Haughwout, Andrew & Peach, Richard & Tracy, Joseph, 2008.
"Juvenile delinquent mortgages: Bad credit or bad economy?,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 246-257, September.
- Andrew F. Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?," Staff Reports 341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:70:y:2011:i:2-3:p:75-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.