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The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification

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  • Maximilian Schmeiser
  • Matthew Gross

Abstract

We examine the evolution of mortgage modification terms obtained by distressed subprime borrowers during the recent housing crisis and the effect of the various types of modifications on the subsequent loan performance. Using the CoreLogic Loan Performance dataset that contains detailed loan level information on mortgages, modification terms, second liens, and home values, we estimate a discrete time proportional hazard model with competing risks to examine the determinants of post-modification mortgage outcomes. We find that principal reductions are particularly effective at improving loan outcomes, as high loan-to-value ratios are the single greatest contributor to re-default and foreclosure. However, any modification that reduces total payment and interest (P&I) reduces the likelihood of subsequent re-default and foreclosure. Modifications that increase the loan principal—primarily through capitalized interest and fees—are more likely to fail, even while controlling for changes in P&I. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA) 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Schmeiser & Matthew Gross, 2016. "The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:1-27
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-015-9500-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Aidong Adam Ding & Shaonan Tian & Yan Yu & Xinlei Zhao, 2022. "Does judicial foreclosure procedure help delinquent subprime mortgage borrowers?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 382-422, June.
    2. Eid, Nourhan & Maltby, Josephine & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2016. "Income Rounding and Loan Performance in the Peer-to-Peer Market," MPRA Paper 72852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marcus T. Allen & Justin D. Benefield & Christopher L. Cain & Norman Maynard, 2024. "Distressed Property Sales: Differences and Similarities Across Types of Distress," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 318-353, February.
    4. Li, Zhiyong & Li, Aimin & Bellotti, Anthony & Yao, Xiao, 2023. "The profitability of online loans: A competing risks analysis on default and prepayment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 968-985.
    5. Juan-Gabriel Gonzalez-Morales & Marina Checa-Olivas & Rafael Cano-Guervos, 2021. "Impact of Evictions and Tourist Apartments on the Residential Rental Market in Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-13, July.
    6. Lei Ding, 2017. "Borrower credit access and credit performance after loan modifications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 977-1005, May.
    7. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2020. "Achieving Effective Mortgage Modifications: The Importance of Household Characteristics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 151-182, August.
    8. Sandler, Ryan, 2023. "Aligning incentives: The effect of mortgage servicing rules on foreclosures and delinquency," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage modification; Subprime; Mortgage default; Foreclosure; HAMP; D12; G21; R20; R28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy

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