IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis

  • Thomas Schelkle

    (London School of Economics)

This paper asks which theories of mortgage default are quantitatively consistent with observations in the United States during 2002-2010. Theoretical models are simulated for the observed time-series of aggregate house prices. Their predictions are then compared to actual default rates on prime fixed-rate mortgages. An out-of-sample test discriminates between estimated reduced forms of the two most prominent theories. The test reveals that the double-trigger hypothesis attributing mortgage default to the joint occurrence of negative equity and a life event like unemployment outperforms a frictionless option-theoretic default model. Based on this finding a structural partial-equilibrium model with liquidity constraints and idiosyncratic unemployment shocks is presented to provide micro-foundations for the double-trigger hypothesis. In this model borrowers with negative equity are more likely to default when they are unemployed and have low liquid wealth. The model explains most of the observed strong rise in mortgage default rates. A policy implication of the model is that subsidizing homeowners can mitigate a mortgage crisis at a lower cost than bailing out lenders.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2012/paper_751.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 751.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:751
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Fax: 1-314-444-8731
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Marianna Kudlyak & Andra Ghent, 2010. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Theory and Evidence from U.S. States," 2010 Meeting Papers 33, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
  3. Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2002. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1946, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Morris A. Davis & Andreas Lehnert & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The Rent-Price Ratio for the Aggregate Stock of Owner-Occupied Housing," Urban/Regional 0509019, EconWPA.
  6. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July.
  7. Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Why Don't Lenders Renegotiate More Home Mortgages? Redefaults, Self-Cures and Securitization," NBER Working Papers 15159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2008. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Proceedings 1092, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Jeske, Karsten & Krueger, Dirk & Mitman, Kurt, 2013. "Housing, mortgage bailout guarantees and the macro economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 917-935.
  10. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
  11. M. Fatih Guvenen, 2002. "Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: A Macroeconomic Perspective," RCER Working Papers 491, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2003.
  12. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  13. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2010. "The Determinants of Attitudes towards Strategic Default on Mortgages," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/31, European University Institute.
  14. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May.
  16. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
  17. Gerardi, Kristopher & Herkenhoff, Kyle F. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Unemployment, negative equity, and strategic default," Working Paper 2013-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Payment size, negative equity, and mortgage default," Staff Reports 582, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  20. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  21. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
  22. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  23. Corradin, Stefano, 2012. "Household leverage," Working Paper Series 1452, European Central Bank.
  24. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2010. "Recourse and residential mortgage default: theory and evidence from U.S. states," Working Paper 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  25. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
  26. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
  27. Daniel McFadden, 1987. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models Without Numerical Integration," Working papers 464, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  28. Christopher Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Reducing foreclosures: no easy answers," Working Paper 2009-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed012:751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.