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Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession

Author

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  • Garriga, Carlos

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Hedlund, Aaron

    (University of Missouri,)

Abstract

Using a model with housing search, endogenous credit constraints, and mortgage default, this paper accounts for the housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross-sectional consumption during the Great Recession. Left tail shocks to labor market uncertainty and tighter down payment requirements emerge as the key drivers. An endogenous decline in housing liquidity amplifies the recession by increasing foreclosures, contracting credit, and depressing consumption. Balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross portfolio positions and the leverage distribution. Low interest rate policies accelerate the recovery in housing and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Garriga, Carlos & Hedlund, Aaron, 2017. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," Working Papers 2017-30, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2017-030
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2017.030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Menzio, Guido & Shi, Shouyong, 2010. "Block recursive equilibria for stochastic models of search on the job," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1453-1494, July.
    2. Foote, Christopher L. & Loewenstein, Lara & Willen, Paul S., 2016. "Cross-sectional patterns of mortgage debt during the housing boom: evidence and implications," Working Papers 16-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    4. Aaron Hedlund, 2014. "Illiquidity and its Discontents: Trading Delays and Foreclosures in the Housing Market," Working Papers 1417, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    5. Thomas Schelkle, 2012. "Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis," 2012 Meeting Papers 751, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Marjorie Flavin & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2008. "A Model of Housing in the Presence of Adjustment Costs: A Structural Interpretation of Habit Persistence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 474-495, March.
    8. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013. "A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, May.
    9. Andrew V. Leventis, 2014. "The Relationship between Second Liens, First Mortgage Outcomes, and Borrower Credit: 1996-2010," FHFA Staff Working Papers 14-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    10. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    11. Gerardi, Kristopher & Herkenhoff, Kyle F. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Jun 2017.
    12. Edward L. Glaeser & Todd Sinai, 2013. "Housing and the Financial Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glae11-1.
    13. Cindy M. Vojtech & Benjamin S. Kay & John C. Driscoll, 2016. "The Real Consequences of Bank Mortgage Lending Standards," Working Papers 16-05, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    14. Sommer, Kamila & Sullivan, Paul & Verbrugge, Randal, 2013. "The equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 854-870.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Serdar Ozkan & Kurt Mitman & Fatih Karahan & Aaron Hedlund, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Heterogeneity and the Housing Channel," 2016 Meeting Papers 663, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. repec:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:152-171 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    4. Eric Zwick & Charles Nathanson & Anthony DeFusco, 2017. "Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume," 2017 Meeting Papers 239, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Nuno Paixao, 2018. "Housing Prices and Consumer Spending: The Bank Balance Sheet Channel," 2018 Meeting Papers 1017, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Guerrieri, Veronica & Julien, Benoit & Kircher, Philipp & Wright, Randall, 2017. "Directed Search: A Guided Tour," CEPR Discussion Papers 12315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Garriga, Carlos & Ricketts, Lowell R. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 2017. "The Homeownership Experience of Minorities During the Great Recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(1), pages 139-167.
    8. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2018. "Housing Finance, Boom-Bust Episodes, and Macroeconomic Fragility," 2018 Meeting Papers 354, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Consumption; Liquidity; Debt; Great Recession;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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