Unemployment, negative equity, and strategic default
Using new household-level data, we quantitatively assess the roles that job loss, negative equity, and wealth (including unsecured debt, liquid assets, and illiquid assets) play in default decisions. In sharp contrast to prior studies that proxy for individual unemployment status using regional unemployment rates, we find that individual unemployment is the strongest predictor of default. We find that individual unemployment increases the probability of default by 5–13 percentage points, ceteris paribus, compared with the sample average default rate of 3.9 percent. We also find that only 13.9 percent of defaulters have both negative equity and enough liquid or illiquid assets to make one month's mortgage payment. This finding suggests that "ruthless" or "strategic" default during the 2007–09 recession was relatively rare and that policies designed to promote employment, such as payroll tax cuts, are most likely to stem defaults in the long run rather than policies that temporarily modify mortgages.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.frbatlanta.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jimenez-Martin, 2007.
"How well do Individuals predict the Selling Prices of their Homes?,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
07-06, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2008. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Economics Working Papers 1065, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jimenez-Martín, 2009. "How Well Do Individuals Predict the Selling Prices of Their Homes?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_571, Levy Economics Institute.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2008. "How Well do Individuals Predict the Selling Prices of their Homes?," Working Papers 2008-10, FEDEA.
- Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008.
"Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
- Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2000.
"My Home Was My Castle: Evictions and Repossessions in Britain,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 287-319, December.
- Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999.
"Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options,"
Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series
qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Juan M. Sánchez, 2011.
2011-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Haughwout, Andrew & Peach, Richard & Tracy, Joseph, 2008.
"Juvenile delinquent mortgages: Bad credit or bad economy?,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 246-257, September.
- Andrew Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?," Staff Reports 341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee Ohanian, 2012. "Foreclosure delay and U.S. unemployment," Working Papers 2012-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sauro Mocetti & Eliana Viviano, 2015. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 999, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007.
"Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures,"
07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Paul S. Willen & Adam Hale Shapiro & Kristopher Gerardi, 2008. "Subprime Outcomes: Risky Mortgages, Homeownership Experiences, and Foreclosures," 2008 Meeting Papers 345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Unemloyment and Unobserved Credit Risk in the FHA Single Family Mortgage Insurance Fund," NBER Working Papers 18880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316.
- Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
- John Gathergood, . "Income Shocks, Mortgage Repayment Risk and Financial Distress Among UK Households," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
- James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263.
- Campbell, Tim S & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1983. " The Determinants of Default on Insured Conventional Residential Mortgage Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1569-81, December.
- David K. Musto, 2004. "What Happens When Information Leaves a Market? Evidence from Postbankruptcy Consumers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 725-748, October.
- Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "The Wealth of the Unemployed," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(1), pages 79-94, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2013-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Meredith Rector)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.