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A model of mortgage default

  • Campbell, John Y.
  • Cocco, João F.

This paper solves a dynamic model of households' mortgage decisions incorporating labor income, house price, inflation, and interest rate risk. It uses a zero-profit condition for mortgage lenders to solve for equilibrium mortgage rates given borrower characteristics and optimal decisions. The model quantifies the effects of adjustable vs. fixed mortgage rates, loan-to-value ratios, and mortgage affordability measures on mortgage premia and default. Heterogeneity in borrowers' labor income risk is important for explaining the higher default rates on adjustable-rate mortgages during the recent US housing downturn, and the variation in mortgage premia with the level of interest rates.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 452.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:452
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  1. Wenli Li & Michelle J. White & Ning Zhu, 2010. "Did Bankruptcy Reform Cause Mortgage Default to Rise?," NBER Working Papers 15968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Reducing foreclosures," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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  12. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  14. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages," EIEF Working Papers Series 0905, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jun 2009.
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  17. Kurt Mitman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Bankruptcy & Foreclosure Policies," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  18. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: theory and evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  19. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
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  24. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
  25. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009. "Foreclosures and house price dynamics: a quantitative analysis of the mortgage crisis and the foreclosure prevention policy," Working Papers 09-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  26. Kurt Mitman, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Bankruptcy and Foreclosure Policies," 2012 Meeting Papers 563, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  27. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
  28. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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