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A model of mortgage default

  • Campbell, John Y.
  • Cocco, João F.

This paper solves a dynamic model of households' mortgage decisions incorporating labor income, house price, inflation, and interest rate risk. It uses a zero-profit condition for mortgage lenders to solve for equilibrium mortgage rates given borrower characteristics and optimal decisions. The model quantifies the effects of adjustable vs. fixed mortgage rates, loan-to-value ratios, and mortgage affordability measures on mortgage premia and default. Heterogeneity in borrowers' labor income risk is important for explaining the higher default rates on adjustable-rate mortgages during the recent US housing downturn, and the variation in mortgage premia with the level of interest rates.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 452.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:452
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  23. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul S. Willen, 2010. "The Impact of Deregulation and Financial Innovation on Consumers: The Case of the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 333-360, 02.
  24. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Reducing foreclosures," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  25. Brueckner Jan K., 1994. "Borrower Mobility, Adverse Selection, and Mortgage Points," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 416-441, September.
  26. Yuliya Demyanyk & Ralph S. J. Koijen & Otto Van Hemert, 2010. "Determinants and consequences of mortgage default," Working Paper 1019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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  29. Kurt Mitman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Bankruptcy & Foreclosure Policies," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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