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A quantitative analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage markets and the foreclosure crisis

  • Satyajit Chatterjee
  • Burcu Eyigungor

The authors construct a quantitative equilibrium model of the housing sector that accounts for the homeownership rate, the average foreclosure rate, and the distribution of home-equity ratios across homeowners prior to the recent boom and bust in the housing market. They analyze the key mechanisms that account for these facts, including the preferential tax treatment of housing and in ation. The authors then use the model to gain a deeper understanding of the recent housing and mortgage crisis by studying the consequence of an unanticipated increase in the supply of housing (overbuilding shock). They show that the model can account for the observed decline in house prices and much of the increase in the foreclosure rate if two additional forces are taken into account: (i) the lengthening of the time to complete a foreclosure (during which a defaulter can stay rent-free in his house) and (ii) the tightening of credit constraints in the market for new mortgages.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 11-26.

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Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:11-26
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  1. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The Value of Foreclosed Property," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(2), pages 193-214.
  2. James D. Shilling & John D. Benjamin & C.F. Sirmans, 1990. "Estimating Net Realizable Value for Distressed Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 129-140.
  3. Karsten Jeske & Dirk Krueger & Kurt Mitman, 2011. "Housing and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Bailout Guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises," NBER Working Papers 17537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Antonia Díaz & María José Luengo-Prado, 2010. "The Wealth Distribution With Durable Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 143-170, 02.
  5. Burcu Eyigungor & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2008. "Maturity, Indebtedness and Default Risk," 2008 Meeting Papers 1001, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "A quantitative theory of unsecured consumer credit with risk of default," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2009. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Working Papers 09-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2001. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 01-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  9. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 3015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jeske, Karsten & Krueger, Dirk & Mitman, Kurt, 2013. "Housing, mortgage bailout guarantees and the macro economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 917-935.
  11. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-94, May.
  12. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Christopher I. & Yaron, Amir, 2004. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 609-633, April.
  13. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Michaelides, Alexander & Nikolov, Kalin, 2010. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7953, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate," Working Papers 2007-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-25, August.
  16. Cristina Arellano & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2008. "Internal Debt Crises and Sovereign Defaults," NBER Working Papers 13794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Martin Gervais, 1998. "Housing Taxation and Capital Accumulation," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9807, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  18. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The High Sensitivity of Economic Activity to Financial Frictions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 351-378, 05.
  19. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
  20. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2009. "The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice," Working Papers 2008-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  21. Enrique G. Mendoza & Emine Boz, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/164, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
  23. James E Mcnulty, 2009. "The Long-run Demand for Housing, the Housing Glut, and the Implications for the Financial Crisis," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 206-215, October.
  24. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Reducing foreclosures," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  25. Makoto Nakajima, 2010. "Optimal capital income taxation with housing," Working Papers 10-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  26. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521747387 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521766555 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2008. "An Aggregate Economy with Different Size Houses," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 705-714, 04-05.
  29. Bulent Guler, 2010. "Innovations in Information Technology and the Mortgage Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 856, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  30. Roger G. Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2003. "Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm354, Yale School of Management.
  31. Joseph Gruber & Robert Martin, 2003. "Precautionary savings and the wealth distribution with illiquid durables," International Finance Discussion Papers 773, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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