An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt
This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. I construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium housing model and find that these three factors together account for over half of the increase in house prices and most of the increase in mortgage debt during this period. Population aging contributes to rising house prices and mortgage debt, but it accounts for only a small portion of their observed changes. Meanwhile, mortgage innovation significantly increases the mortgage borrowing of various age cohorts, but it has a trivial effect on house prices because interest rates rise due to higher demand for mortgage loans. This increases households’ savings in financial assets and leaves their housing assets nearly unchanged. The observed run-up in house prices can, however, be justified in an open-economy setting where interest rates fall due to a global saving glut. Declining interest rates force households at prime saving ages to reallocate their wealth from financial assets to housing assets, which dramatically drives up house prices.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Libertad González Luna & Francesc Ortega, 2009.
"Immigration and housing booms: Evidence from Spain,"
Economics Working Papers
1167, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Libertad Gonzalez & Francesc Ortega, 2013. "Immigration And Housing Booms: Evidence From Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 37-59, 02.
- Libertad Gonzalez & Francesc Ortega, 2009. "Immigration and Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0919, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Gonzalez, Libertad & Ortega, Francesc, 2009. "Immigration and Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 4333, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Erosa, Andres & Koreshkova, Tatyana, 2007. "Progressive taxation in a dynastic model of human capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 667-685, April.
- Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2007.
"Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 552-565, August.
- Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2002. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 9382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gouveia, Miguel & Strauss, Robert P., 1994. "Effective Federal Individual Tax Functions: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 47(2), pages 317-39, June.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2009.
"The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice,"
2008-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Matt Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2009. "The Loan Structure and Housing Tenure Decisions in an Equilibrium Model of Mortgage Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 444-468, July.
- Martin Gervais, 1998.
"Housing Taxation and Capital Accumulation,"
UWO Department of Economics Working Papers
9807, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Antonia Díaz & Maria J. Luengo-Prado, 2006.
"On The User Cost and Homeownership,"
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga, 2005.
"Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
304, Society for Computational Economics.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, 08.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate," Working Paper 2007-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate," Working Papers 2007-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Yoshiro Miwa & Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2004. "Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-312, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
- Kjetil Storesletten, .
"Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration,"
_005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Makoto Nakajima, 2010. "Optimal capital income taxation with housing," Working Papers 10-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2000.
"Consumption and Risk Sharing Over the Life Cycle,"
NBER Working Papers
7995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Chris & Yaron, Amir, 2002. "Consumption and Risk Sharing Over the Life Cycle," Seminar Papers 702, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 1997. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," GSIA Working Papers 228, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Ogaki, M & Reinhart, C-M, 1995.
"Measuring Intertemporal Substitution : The Role of Durable Goods,"
RCER Working Papers
404, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Masao Ogaki & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1078-1098, October.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao, 1995. "Measuring intertemporal substitution: The role of durable goods," MPRA Paper 13690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2000. "Aging and Housing Equity," NBER Working Papers 7882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Poterba, 2004.
"The impact of population aging on financial markets,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
- James Poterba, 2004. "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Waldron, Matt & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Household debt, house prices and consumption in the United Kingdom: a quantitative theoretical analysis," Bank of England working papers 379, Bank of England.
- Chambers, Matthew & Garriga, Carlos & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 2009. "Housing policy and the progressivity of income taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1116-1134, November.
- Fang Yang, 2009.
"Consumption over the Life Cycle: How Different is Housing?,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 423-443, July.
- Fang Yang, 2008. "Code and data files for "Consumption over the Life Cycle: How Different is Housing?"," Computer Codes 06-210, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Chatterjee, Satyajit & Eyigungor, Burcu, 2009. "Foreclosures and house price dynamics: a quantitative analysis of the mortgage crisis and the foreclosure prevention policy," Working Papers 09-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
- Joseph Gruber & Robert Martin, 2003. "Precautionary savings and the wealth distribution with illiquid durables," International Finance Discussion Papers 773, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hansen, G.D., 1991.
"The Cyclical and Secular Behavior of the Labor Input : Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked,"
36, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Hansen, G D, 1993. "The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
- Kamila Sommer & Paul Sullivan & Randal Verbrugge, 2010. "Run-up in the House Price-Rent Ratio: How Much Can Be Explained by Fundamentals?," Working Papers 441, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.