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Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market

Stock market price/earnings ratios should be influenced by demography. Since demography is predictable, stock returns should be as well. We provide a simple stochastic OLG model with a cyclical structure that generates cyclical P/E ratios. We calibrate the model to roughly fit the cyclical features of historical P/E ratios.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13b/d1380.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1380.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 2004
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1380
Note: CFP 1099
Contact details of provider: Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

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Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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  1. Andrew B. Abel, 2002. "The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of Social Security," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2003. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 9677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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  8. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, May.
  9. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "International Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp03, IIIS.
  10. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
  11. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  12. Basu, Parantap, 1987. "An Adjustment Cost Model of Asset Pricing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 609-21, October.
  13. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328.
  14. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
  15. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
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  17. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October.
  18. Modigliani, Franco, 1988. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 15-40, Spring.
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  20. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November.
  21. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
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  23. repec:dgr:kubcen:200142 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Steven A. Sass & Robert K. Triest, 1997. "Social Security: how social and secure should it be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 41(Jun), pages 29-63.
  25. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  26. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
  27. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
  28. Butler, M. & Harms, P., 2001. "Old Folks and Spoiled Brats : Why the baby Boomers' Saving Crisis Need Not be that Bad," Discussion Paper 2001-42, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  29. Modigliani, Franco, 1985. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
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