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The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security

  • Andrew B. Abel

Is the stock market boom a result of the baby boom? This paper develops an overlapping generations model in which a baby boom is modeled as a high realization of a random birth rate, and the price of capital is determined endogenously by a convex cost of adjustment. A baby boom increases national saving and investment and thus causes an increase in the price of capital. The price of capital is mean-reverting so the initial increase in the price of capital is followed by a decrease. Social Security can potentially affect national saving and investment, though in the long run, it does not affect the price of capital.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9210.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9210.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Publication status: published as Abel, Andrew B. "The Effects Of A Baby Boom On Stock Prices And Capital Accumulation In The Presence Of Social Security," Econometrica, 2003, v71(2,Mar), 551-578.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9210
Note: AG AP EFG PE
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  1. Robert E. Hall, 2000. "The stock market and capital accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
  2. Andrew B. Abel, 2002. "On the Invariance of the Rate of Return to Convex Adjustment Costs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 586-601, July.
  3. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November.
  5. Zilcha, Itzhak, 1991. "Characterizing efficiency in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, October.
  6. Basu, Parantap, 1987. "An Adjustment Cost Model of Asset Pricing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 609-21, October.
  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  8. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1986. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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