IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles

  • Bertrand Wigniolle

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics)

This paper shows that it is possible to extend the scope of the existence of rational bubbles when uncertainty is introduced associated with rank-dependent expected utility. This RDU assumption can be viewed as a transformation of probabilities depending on the pessimism/optimism of the agent. The results show that pessimism favors the existence of deterministic bubbles, when optimism may promote the existence of stochastic bubbles. Moreover, under pessimism, the RDU assumption may generate multiple bubbly equilibria. The RDU assumption also leads to new conditions ensuring the (absence of) Paretooptimality of the competitive equilibrium without bubbles. These conditions still govern the existence of bubbles.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00974144/document
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00974144.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 2014, 41, pp.188-208. <10.1016/j.jedc.2014.01.022>
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00974144
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.01.022
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00974144
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Demange, G. & Laroque, G., 1996. "Social Security and Demographic Shocks," DELTA Working Papers 96-04, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  2. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December.
  3. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1986. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Philippe Weil, 1992. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 3992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philippe Weil, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22.
  7. Bertrand Wigniolle, 2012. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12005, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  8. Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2009. "On Rational Exuberance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00367689, HAL.
  9. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
  10. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 15870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  12. repec:oup:restud:v:56:y:1989:i:1:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Grossman, G.M. & Yanagawa, N., 1992. "Asset Bubbles and Endogenous Growth," Papers 160, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  14. Ricardo Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2004. "Speculative Growth: Hints from the US Economy," NBER Working Papers 10518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  16. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2008. "Competing Liquidities: Corporate Securities, Real Bonds and Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 13955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Dow, James & Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa, 1991. "Excess volatility of stock prices and knightian uncertainty," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 179, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  19. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, 1.
  20. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2009. "Bubbly Liquidity," TSE Working Papers 09-101, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2011.
  21. Jean-Marc Tallon, 1997. "Risque microéconomique et prix d'actifs dans un modèle d'équilibre général avec espérance d'utilité dépendante du rang," Post-Print halshs-00502512, HAL.
  22. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2006. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  23. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  24. Peled, Dan, 1984. "Stationary pareto optimality of stochastic asset equilibria with overlapping generations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 396-403, December.
  25. Wang Yong, 1993. "Stationary Equilibria in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Stochastic Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 423-435, December.
  26. Cass, David, 1972. "On capital overaccumulation in the aggregative, neoclassical model of economic growth: A complete characterization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 200-223, April.
  27. Zilcha, Itzhak, 1991. "Characterizing efficiency in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, October.
  28. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  29. Homburg, Stefan, 1992. "Efficient Economic Growth," EconStor Books, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, number 92903.
  30. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
  31. Gottardi, Piero, 1996. "Stationary Monetary Equilibria in Overlapping Generations Models with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 75-89, October.
  32. Olivier, Jacques, 2000. "Growth-Enhancing Bubbles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 133-51, February.
  33. Rao Aiyagari, S. & Peled, Dan, 1991. "Dominant root characterization of Pareto optimality and the existence of optimal equilibria in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 69-83, June.
  34. Jean-Marc Tallon, 2014. "Décision dans le risque et l'incertain," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01026078, HAL.
  35. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8607 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00974144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.