IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Rational Bubbles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. The(De-)Stabilizing Role of Monetary Policy

We are interested in the existence of expectation-driven fluctuations of a rational bubble and the (de-)stabilizing role of monetary policy. This paper highlights the key role of credit market imperfections at the household level to explain bubble fluctuations and exhibits the stabilizing power of monetary rules responding to asset prices. We consider an overlapping generations exchange economy where households realize a portfolio choice between money and a bubble. Money is held because of a partial cash-in-advance constraint affected by the size of the bubble. A higher value of the bubble reduces the need of cash, and thus increases the fraction of consumption purchased on credit. Under these credit market features, multiplicity of steady-states (global indeterminacy) and expectation-driven fluctuations (local indeterminacy) can occur for arbitrarily small market distortions. Investing the stabilizing role of monetary policy, we show that when the monetary policy rule responds only to expected inflation, a more active rule can be destabilizing by promoting local indeterminacy and has no impact on the multiplicity of steady states. In contrast to the previous policy, when the rule responds also to asset prices, then the monetary policy can be stabilizing and rule out the multiplicity of steady states.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/sites/default/files/_dt/2012/wp_2012_-_nr_07_1.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France in its series AMSE Working Papers with number 1207.

as
in new window

Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 23 Mar 2012
Date of revision: 23 Mar 2012
Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1207
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. CRETTEZ, Bertrand & MICHEL, Philippe & WIGNIOLLE, Bertrand, 1998. "Cash-in-advance constraints in the diamond overlapping generations model: neutrality and optimality of monetary policies," CORE Discussion Papers 1998005, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: A Structural Econometric Analysis," 2004 Meeting Papers 207b, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2011. "Bubbly Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 16750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2005. "Cash-In-Advance Constraints, Bubbles, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 28-56, February.
  5. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick, 1996. "Multiple steady states and endogenous fluctuations with increasing returns to scale in production," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9618, CEPREMAP.
  6. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 184-221, July.
  7. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  8. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  9. Janet L. Yellen, 2009. "A Minsky meltdown: lessons for central bankers," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may1.
  10. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1137-1164, 07.
  11. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1986. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 57-76, October.
  12. Kocherlakota, N.R., 1990. "Bubbles and Constraints on Debt Accumulation," Working Papers 90-29, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  13. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
  14. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
  15. Philippe Weil, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22.
  16. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
  17. Wigniolle, B., 2014. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 188-208.
  18. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  19. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel & PINTUS, Patrick & de VILDER, Robin, 1997. "Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles," CORE Discussion Papers 1997087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  20. Herakles Polemarchakis, 2001. "Debt, liquidity and dynamics," Working Papers 2001-22, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  21. Jaume Ventura & Alberto Martín, 2003. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," Working Papers 204, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  22. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
  23. NUTAHARA Kengo, 2010. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in a Sticky-Price Economy with Financial Frictions," Discussion papers 10060, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  24. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  25. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "The Stabilizing Virtues of Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy on Endogenous Bubble Fluctuations," Working Papers halshs-00854536, HAL.
  26. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages S71-S89.
  27. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00268861 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
  29. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2008. "The spirit of capitalism, stock market bubbles and output fluctuations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 3-28.
  30. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
  31. Gillman M. & Siklos & P.L.Silver & J.L., 1996. "Money Velocity with Costly Credit," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 515, The University of Melbourne.
  32. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  33. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2009. "On Rational Exuberance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00367689, HAL.
  35. Kocherlakota, Narayana, 2008. "Injecting rational bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 218-232, September.
  36. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1985. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," NBER Working Papers 1618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  39. Tullio Jappelli, 1990. "Who is Credit Constrained in the U. S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-234.
  40. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2004. "Asset prices, nominal rigidities, and monetary policy," Working Paper 0413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  41. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-52, March.
  42. Gerhard Sorger, 2005. "Active and Passive Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 731-748, July.
  43. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  44. Gaetano Gaballo, 2016. "Rational Inattention to News: The Perils of Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 42-97, January.
  45. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2003. "Temporary bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 173-183, September.
  46. repec:syd:wpaper:2123/8187 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "Rational bubbles and expectation-driven fluctuations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 69-83, 03.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yves Doazan)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.