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Rational Bubbles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. The(De-)Stabilizing Role of Monetary Policy

We are interested in the occurrence of expectation-driven fluctuations of a rational bubble and the (de-)stabilizing role of monetary policy. Our explanation of fluctuations is based on credit market imperfections. For this purpose, we consider an overlapping generations exchange economy where households realize a portfolio choice between money and bubble. Money is held because of a partial cash-in-advance constraint affected by the bubble. Bubble acts as a store of value, but also as a collateral. Indeed, a higher value of the bubble implies a higher amount of collateral, which, in turn, reduces the need of cash, and thus increases consumption purchased on credit. Under these credit market features, expectation-driven fluctuations and the multiplicity of steady-states occur, in particular for arbitrarily small market distortions. Investing the stabilizing role of monetary policy, we show that when the monetary policy rule depends on expected inflation only, a more active rule stabilizes only if collateral has a large effect on consumption financed on credit. Finally, we enrich this rule by including asset prices. A policy which depends on asset prices can stabilize whatever the effect of collateral and can also rule out the multiplicity of steady states. More generally, this paper emphasizes the key role of consumers' credit market imperfections to explain bubble fluctuations and exhibits the stabilizing power of monetary rules including asset prices.

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Paper provided by Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France in its series AMSE Working Papers with number 1207.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 23 Mar 2012
Date of revision: 23 Mar 2012
Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1207
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en

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  1. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  2. Gerhard Sorger, 2005. "Active and Passive Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 731-748, July.
  3. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  6. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt," NBER Working Papers 12614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2009. "Bubbly Liquidity," IDEI Working Papers 577, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Feb 2011.
  10. Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2009. "On rational exuberance," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 09004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  11. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  12. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2003. "Temporary bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 173-183, September.
  13. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1986. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 57-76, October.
  14. CRETTEZ, Bertrand & MICHEL, Philippe & WIGNIOLLE, Bertrand, 1998. "Cash-in-advance constraints in the diamond overlapping generations model: neutrality and optimality of monetary policies," CORE Discussion Papers 1998005, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  15. Jean-Michel Grandmont & P, A, Pintus & R, De Vilder, 1997. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Working Papers 97-28, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
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  17. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2007. "The Spirit of Capitalism, Stock Market Bubbles, and Output Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series 205, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2007.
  18. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  19. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2004. "Asset prices, nominal rigidities, and monetary policy," Working Paper 0413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  21. NUTAHARA Kengo, 2010. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in a Sticky-Price Economy with Financial Frictions," Discussion papers 10060, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  22. G, Cazzavillan & T, Lloyd-Braga & P, A, Pintus, 1997. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Working Papers 97-29, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
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  24. repec:syd:wpaper:2123/8187 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  27. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00268861 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
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