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A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices

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  • Hillebrand, Marten
  • Kikuchi, Tomoo

Abstract

The paper studies the dynamics of housing prices in a pure exchange overlapping generations framework a la Samuelson (1958) and Gale (1973), which is extended to include housing as a utility-yielding durable good and a credit sector. We completely characterize the equilibrium dynamics, which alternates between an expansive regime where leveraged borrowing increases housing prices, and a contractive regime where these variables decrease. Regime switches occur due to small but persistent income changes giving rise to boom-bust cycles in housing prices. Price deviations from fundamentals are caused by leveraged borrowing, and turn out to be fully welfare-neutral.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2015. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 204-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:204-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.09.033
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    Cited by:

    1. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Rational housing demand bubble," Working Papers 2207, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    2. Hui An & Lijie Yu & Rakesh Gupta, 2016. "Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 451-475, December.
    3. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    5. Linyan Wang & Haiqing Hu & Xianzhu Wang, 2022. "The Dynamic Evolution of the Structure of an Urban Housing Investment Niche Network and Its Underlying Mechanisms: A Case Study of 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    6. MeiChi Huang, 2017. "Vulnerabilities to housing bubbles: Evidence from linkages between housing prices and income fundamentals," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 64-91, March.
    7. Graczyk, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2021. "Regressive Welfare Effects Of Housing Bubbles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2102-2127, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pure exchange OLG; Housing prices; Credit volume; Boom-bust cycles; Regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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