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A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices

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  • Hillebrand, Marten
  • Kikuchi, Tomoo

Abstract

The paper studies the dynamics of housing prices in a pure exchange overlapping generations framework a la Samuelson (1958) and Gale (1973), which is extended to include housing as a utility-yielding durable good and a credit sector. We completely characterize the equilibrium dynamics, which alternates between an expansive regime where leveraged borrowing increases housing prices, and a contractive regime where these variables decrease. Regime switches occur due to small but persistent income changes giving rise to boom-bust cycles in housing prices. Price deviations from fundamentals are caused by leveraged borrowing, and turn out to be fully welfare-neutral.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2015. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 204-217.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:204-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.09.033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Óscar Arce & David López-Salido, 2011. "Housing Bubbles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 212-241, January.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2006. "Speculative Growth: Hints from the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1159-1192, September.
    3. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2007. "The Life-Cycle Effects of House Price Changes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1375-1409, September.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    5. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
    6. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    7. Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
    8. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, June.
    9. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    10. Ventura, Jaume, 2012. "Bubbles and capital flows," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 738-758.
    11. Hillebrand, Marten, 2014. "Uniqueness of Markov equilibrium in stochastic OLG models with nonclassical production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 171-176.
    12. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013. "A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:ausecp:v:55:y:2016:i:4:p:451-475 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:64-91 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pure exchange OLG; Housing prices; Credit volume; Boom-bust cycles; Regime switching;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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