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Housing Bubbles

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  • Óscar Arce
  • David López-Salido

Abstract

We use the notion of a housing bubble as an equilibrium in which some investors hold houses for resale purposes only and not with the expectation of receiving a dividend, either in the form of rent or utility. We show that an economy with looser collateral constraints is less prone to bubbles, which, in turn, have smaller size, but are more fragile in the face of credit-crunch shocks. Our environment also allows for the existence of pure bubbles on unproductive assets. We find that multiple equilibria, in which the economy moves endogenously from a pure bubble to a housing bubble and vice versa, are possible. (JEL G12, R21, R31)

Suggested Citation

  • Óscar Arce & David López-Salido, 2011. "Housing Bubbles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 212-241, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:212-41 Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.1.212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pengfei Wang & Jing Zhou & Jianjun Miao, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Policy Analysis," 2015 Meeting Papers 1056, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    3. Arce, Óscar & Manuel Campa, José & Gavilán, Ángel, 2013. "Macroeconomic adjustment under loose financing conditions in the construction sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    4. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Dissecting the 2007-2009 real estate market bust: systematic pricing correction or just a housing fad?," Working Paper 2013/22, Norges Bank.
    5. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    7. Bo Zhao, 2015. "Rational housing bubble," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), pages 141-201.
    8. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    9. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2017. "The macroeconomics of rational bubbles: a user's guide," Economics Working Papers 1581, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Diego Vílchez, "undated". "Assessing the House Price Dynamics in Lima," IHEID Working Papers 09-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Basco, Sergi, 2016. "Switching bubbles: From Outside to Inside Bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 236-255.
    12. Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2017. "Clustered housing cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, pages 185-197.
    13. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2015. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 33-51.
    14. Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2015. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 204-217.
    15. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, pages 230-243.
    16. Michal Rubaszek & Margarita Rubio, 2017. "Does rental housing market stabilize the economy? A micro and macro perspective," Discussion Papers 2017/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    17. Chao He & Randall Wright & Yu Zhu, 2015. "Housing and Liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 435-455, July.
    18. Mathieu Boullot, 2017. "Secular Stagnation, Liquidity Trap and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Working Papers halshs-01295012, HAL.
    19. Eva Zamrazilová & Václav Žďárek, 2014. "Two Czech crises revisited: pantarhei," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 8, pages 114-144 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Basco, Sergi, 2014. "Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 78-94.
    21. Michal Rubaszek, 2017. "Reforming housing rental market in a life-cycle model," Working Papers 2017-028, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    22. Mora-Sanguinetti, Juan S. & Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Recent reforms in Spanish housing markets: An evaluation using a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 42-49.
    23. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei & Zhou, Jing, 2015. "Asset bubbles, collateral, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 57-70.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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