IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/0815.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Housing bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Óscar J. Arce

    () (Banco de España)

  • J. David López-Salido

    () (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

In this paper we use the notion of a housing bubble as an equilibrium in which some investors hold houses only for resale purposes and not for the expectation of a dividend, either in the form of rents or utility. We provide a life-cycle model where households face collateral constraints that tie their credit capacity to the value of their houses and examine the conditions under which housing bubbles can emerge. In such equilibria, the total housing stock is held by owners that extract utility from their homes, landlords that obtain rents, and investors. We show that an economy with tighter collateral constraints is more prone to bubbles which, in turn, tend to have a larger size but are less fragile in face of funddraining shocks. Our environment also allows for pure bubbles on useless assets. We find that multiple equilibria in which the economy moves endogenously from a pure bubble to a housing bubble regime and vice versa are possible. This suggests that high asset price volatility may be a natural consequence of asset shortages (or excess funding) that depress interest rates sufficiently so as to sustain an initial bubble. We also examine some welfare implications of the two types of bubbles and discuss some mechanisms to rule out equilibria with housing bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Óscar J. Arce & J. David López-Salido, 2008. "Housing bubbles," Working Papers 0815, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0815
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/08/Fic/dt0815e.pdf
    File Function: First version, August 2008
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2006. "Speculative Growth: Hints from the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1159-1192, September.
    3. Boyan Jovanovic, 2013. "Bubbles In Prices Of Exhaustible Resources," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 1-34, February.
    4. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    5. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2006. "House Prices, Rents and Interest Rates Under Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
    7. Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Bubbles and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2007. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 552-565, August.
    9. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    11. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
    12. Aiyagari, S. Rao, 1992. "Co-existence of a representative agent type equilibrium with a non-representative agent type equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 230-236.
    13. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    15. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    16. Rao Aiyagari, S., 1989. "Equilibrium existence in an overlapping generations model with altruistic preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 130-152, February.
    17. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2010. "Winners and Losers in House Markets," Working Papers 2010-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    18. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    19. Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott & Susan M. Wachter, 1996. "Borrowing Constraints and the Tenure Choice of Young Households," NBER Working Papers 5630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    21. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    22. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How can housing bubbles happen?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2008-08-18 19:16:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pengfei Wang & Jing Zhou & Jianjun Miao, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Policy Analysis," 2015 Meeting Papers 1056, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    3. Arce, Óscar & Manuel Campa, José & Gavilán, Ángel, 2013. "Macroeconomic adjustment under loose financing conditions in the construction sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    4. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
    5. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    7. Bo Zhao, 2015. "Rational housing bubble," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(1), pages 141-201, September.
    8. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2015. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-51.
    9. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2017. "The macroeconomics of rational bubbles: a user's guide," Economics Working Papers 1581, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Diego Vílchez, "undated". "Assessing the House Price Dynamics in Lima," IHEID Working Papers 09-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Basco, Sergi, 2016. "Switching bubbles: From Outside to Inside Bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 236-255.
    12. Mora-Sanguinetti, Juan S. & Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Recent reforms in Spanish housing markets: An evaluation using a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 42-49.
    13. Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2015. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 204-217.
    14. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    15. Michal Rubaszek & Margarita Rubio, 2017. "Does rental housing market stabilize the economy? A micro and macro perspective," Discussion Papers 2017/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    16. Chao He & Randall Wright & Yu Zhu, 2015. "Housing and Liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 435-455, July.
    17. Mathieu Boullot, 2017. "Secular Stagnation, Liquidity Trap and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Working Papers halshs-01295012, HAL.
    18. Eva Zamrazilová & Václav Žďárek, 2014. "Two Czech crises revisited: pantarhei," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 8, pages 114-144 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Basco, Sergi, 2014. "Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 78-94.
    20. Michal Rubaszek, 2017. "Reforming housing rental market in a life-cycle model," Working Papers 2017-028, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    21. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei & Zhou, Jing, 2015. "Asset bubbles, collateral, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 57-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    collateral constraints; buy-to-let investment; housing bubbles; switching bubbles; welfare;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Economic Logic blog

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0815. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España). General contact details of provider: http://www.bde.es/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.