Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management
Emerging market economies are fertile ground for the development of real estate and other financial bubbles. Despite these economies' significant growth potential, their corporate and government sectors do not generate the financial instruments to provide residents with adequate stores of value. Capital often flows out of these economies seeking these stores of value in the developed world. Bubbles are beneficial because they provide domestic stores of value and thereby reduce capital outflows while increasing investment. But they come at a cost, as they expose the country to bubble-crashes and capital flow reversals. We show that domestic financial underdevelopment not only facilitates the emergence of bubbles, but also leads agents to undervalue the aggregate risk embodied in financial bubbles. In this context, even rational bubbles can be welfare reducing. We study a set of aggregate risk management policies to alleviate the bubble-risk. We show that liquidity requirements, sterilization of capital inflows and structural policies aimed at developing public debt markets "collateralized" by future revenues, all have a high payoff in this environment.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Caballero, Ricardo J. and Arvind Krishnamurthy. "Bubbles And Capital Flow Volatility: Causes And Risk Management," Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006, v53(1,Jan), 35-53.|
|Note:||EFG IFM ME|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
- Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989.
"Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
- Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1986. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gilles Saint-Paul, 1992. "Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-1259.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989.
"A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February.
- Jeremy A.Rogoff Bulow & Kenneth, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 43, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Jeremy I. Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 2088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jaume Ventura, 2004.
"Bubbles and capital flows,"
2004 Meeting Papers
102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Bubbles and capital flows," Economics Working Papers 846, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2010.
- Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Bubbles and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Bubbles and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1986. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in an Overlapping-Generations Economy with Land," NBER Working Papers 1892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001.
"International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
- Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "International and Domestic Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 7971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2006.
"Speculative Growth: Hints from the U.S. Economy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1159-1192, September.
- Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
- Holmstrom, B & Tirole, J, 1996.
"Private and Public Supply of Liquidity,"
96-21, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Philippe Weil, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22.
- Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- Rudiger W. Dornbusch, 1999. "Commentary : monetary policy and asset market volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 129-135.
- Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Financial System Risk and Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 11834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.