IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v111y2019icp400-420.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment

Author

Listed:
  • Raurich, Xavier
  • Seegmuller, Thomas

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the interplay between long term productive investments and more short term and liquid speculative ones. A three-period lived overlapping generations model allows us to make this distinction. Agents have a portfolio decision. When young, they can invest in human capital that is a productive long term investment that provides a return during the following two periods. When young or in the middle age, they can invest in a bubble. Young individuals can also borrow on a credit market to finance the productive investment. However, the amount borrowed is limited by a credit constraint. We show that the existence of a stationary bubble raises productive investment and production when the bubleless economy is credit constrained and dynamically efficient. Indeed, young agents sell short the bubble to increase productive investments, whereas traders at middle age transfer wealth to old age. The bubble allows to relax the credit constraint. We outline that a permanent technological shock inducing either a larger return of capital in the short term or a similar increase in the return of capital in both periods raises productive capital, production and the bubble size. We use our framework to discuss the effect on the occurrence of bubbles of financial regulation and fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Raurich, Xavier & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2019. "On the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 400-420.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:111:y:2019:i:c:p:400-420
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001429211830182X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2006. "Speculative Growth: Hints from the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1159-1192, September.
    2. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2006. "Liquidity and Asset Prices," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(4), pages 269-364, February.
    3. repec:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:9:p:2590-2628 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bosi, Stefano & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2010. "On rational exuberance," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-270, March.
    5. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    6. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2016. "Managing Credit Bubbles," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 753-789.
    7. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2017. "Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 406-443.
    8. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DE LA CROIX, David & LICANDRO, Omar, 2006. "Vintage capital," CORE Discussion Papers 2006024, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    10. Boucekkine, Raouf & del Rio, Fernando & Licandro, Omar, 2005. "Obsolescence and modernization in the growth process," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 153-171, June.
    11. Lansing, Kevin J., 2012. "Speculative growth, overreaction, and the welfare cost of technology-driven bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 461-483.
    12. Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2016. "Intertemporal equilibrium with financial asset and physical capital," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 155-199, June.
    13. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    14. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1992. "Bubbles and constraints on debt accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 245-256.
    15. Lansing, Kevin, 2009. "Speculative Bubbles and Overreaction to Technological Innovation," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 26, pages 51-54.
    16. Lagos, Ricardo, 2010. "Asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 913-930, November.
    17. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, July - De.
    18. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    19. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Puch, Luis A. & del Rio, Fernando, 2005. "Vintage capital and the dynamics of the AK model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 39-72, January.
    20. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    21. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    22. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2008. "The spirit of capitalism, stock market bubbles and output fluctuations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 3-28, March.
    23. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    24. Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2016. "Intertemporal equilibrium with financial asset and physical capital," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 155-199, June.
    25. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1991. "Vintage capital, investment, and growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 323-339, December.
    26. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-388, May.
    27. Philippe Weil, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22.
    28. Jose A. Scheinkman, 2013. "Speculation, Trading and Bubbles Third Annual Arrow Lecture," Working Papers 1458, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    29. Gert Wehinger, 2011. "Fostering Long-term Investment and Economic Growth Summary of a High-Level OECD Financial Roundtable," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(1), pages 9-29.
    30. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 1998. "Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 111-130, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2018. "Bubble on real estate: The role of altruism and fiscal policy," Working Papers halshs-01885932, HAL.
    2. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2018. "Bubble on real estate: The role of altruism and fiscal policy," Working Papers 1820, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Efficiency; Vintage capital; Credit; Short sellers; Overlapping generations;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:111:y:2019:i:c:p:400-420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.