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Rational housing demand bubble

Author

Listed:
  • Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard

    (Univ. Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France)

  • Xavier Raurich

    (Departament d'Economia and CREB, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Thomas Seegmuller

    (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille France. 5 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet CS 50498 F-13205 Marseille cedex 1, France)

Abstract

We provide a unified framework with demand for housing over the life cycle and financial frictions to analyze the existence and macroeconomic effects of rational housing bubbles. We distinguish a housing price bubble, defined as the difference between the housing market price and its fundamental value, from a housing demand bubble, which corresponds to a situation where a pure speculative housing demand exists. In an overlapping generation exchange economy, we show that no housing price bubble occurs. However, a housing demand bubble may occur, generating a boom in housing prices and a drop in the interest rate, when households face a binding borrowing constraint. Multiplicity of steady states and endogenous fluctuations can occur when credit market imperfections are moderate. These fluctuations involve transitions between equilibria with and without a housing demand bubble that generate large fluctuations in housing prices consistent with observed patterns. We finally extend the basic framework to a production economy and we show that a housing demand bubble increases the housing price, housing price to income ratio and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Rational housing demand bubble," Working Papers 2207, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:2207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2024. "Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "Rational bubbles on assets with a fundamental value," AMSE Working Papers 2408, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "Testing the hypothesis of duration dependence in the U.S. housing market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    4. Lise Clain‐chamosset‐yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "Rational bubbles on assets with a fundamental value," Working Papers hal-04493331, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Housing; Self-fulfilling fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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