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The great housing boom of China

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  • Chen, kaiji

    () (Economics Department, Emory University)

  • Wen, Yi

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

China’s housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China’s housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for China’s paradoxical housing boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, kaiji & Wen, Yi, 2014. "The great housing boom of China," Working Papers 2014-22, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Aug 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-022
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The great housing boom of China
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-09-15 20:08:08

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:chieco:v:50:y:2018:i:c:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chun Chang & Kaiji Chen & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-84.
    3. Gerlagh, Reyer & Jaimes, Richard & Motavasseli, Ali, 2017. "Global demographic change and climate policies," Discussion Paper 2017-035, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Jia, Pengfei & Lim, King Yoong, 2018. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," MPRA Paper 86576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Margaret, Davenport & Guido, Cozzi, 2017. "Financial Development and Capital Flows: An Application," MPRA Paper 79965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China’s financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2017. "China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    8. Hanming Fang & Quanlin Gu & Wei Xiong & Li-An Zhou, 2016. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 105-166.
    9. Wen, Yi & Wu, Jing, 2014. "Withstanding great recession like China," Working Papers 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 21 Oct 2017.
    10. Mali Chivakul & Waikei R Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 15/84, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rajnish Mehra & John Donaldson & Christos Koulovatianos & Jian Li, 2018. "Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China’s One-Child Policy," NCAER Working Papers 112, National Council of Applied Economic Research.
    12. Alexander Cooper & Arianna Cowling, 2015. "China’s Property Sector," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 45-54, March.
    13. Mark Kruger & Kun Mo & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2016. "The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices," Discussion Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    14. repec:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:10:p:2947-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sun, Tianyu & Chand, Satish & Sharpe, Keiran, 2018. "Effect of Aging on Housing Prices: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generation Model," MPRA Paper 89347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "Housing Booms and Busts, Labor Market Opportunities, and College Attendance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(10), pages 2947-2994, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Bubble; Resource Misallocation; Chinese Economy; Development; Economic Transition.;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • P23 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population
    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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