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Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30

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  • Hanming Fang
  • Quanlin Gu
  • Wei Xiong
  • Li‐An Zhou

Abstract

We construct housing price indices for 120 major cities in China in 2003-2013 based on sequential sales of new homes within the same housing developments. By using these indices and detailed information on mortgage borrowers across these cities, we find enormous housing price appreciation during the decade, which was accompanied by equally impressive growth in household income, except in a few first-tier cities. While bottom-income mortgage borrowers endured severe financial burdens by using price-to-income ratios over eight to buy homes, their participation in the housing market remained steady and their mortgage loans were protected by down payments commonly in excess of 35 percent. As such, the housing market is unlikely to trigger an imminent financial crisis in China, even though it may crash with a sudden stop in the Chinese economy and act as an amplifier of the initial shock.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hanming Fang & Quanlin Gu & Wei Xiong & Li‐An Zhou, 2015. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 105-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13595
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2012. "Why Are Saving Rates So High in China?," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 249-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    3. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    4. McMillen, Daniel P., 2008. "Changes in the distribution of house prices over time: Structural characteristics, neighborhood, or coefficients?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 573-589, November.
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    7. Guo, Xiaoyang & Zheng, Siqi & Geltner, David & Liu, Hongyu, 2014. "A new approach for constructing home price indices: The pseudo repeat sales model and its application in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 20-38.
    8. Jing Wu & Yongheng Deng & Hongyu Liu, 2014. "House Price Index Construction in the Nascent Housing Market: The Case of China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 522-545, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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