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A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices

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  • Hillebrand, Marten
  • Kikuchi, Tomoo

Abstract

We study an exchange economy with overlapping generations of consumers who derive utility from consuming a non-durable commodity and housing. A banking sector offers loans to finance housing. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium dynamics which alternates between an expansive regime where housing prices increase and banks expand loans and a contractive regime associated with decreasing housing values and shrinking credit volume. Regime switches occur even under small but persistent income changes giving rise to large and recurrent booms and busts in housing prices not reflecting changes in fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2012. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Working Paper Series in Economics 40, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
    2. Céline Rochon & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2006. "Debt, liquidity and dynamics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 179-211, January.
    3. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    4. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1992. "Bubbles and constraints on debt accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 245-256.
    5. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
    6. Céline Rochon & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2006. "Debt, liquidity and dynamics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 179-211, 01.
    7. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013. "A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, May.
    8. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Bubbly Liquidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 678-706.
    9. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    10. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2003. "Temporary bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 173-183, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    OLG; Housing prices; Credit volume; Boom-bust scenarios; Regime switching;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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