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A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices

Author

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  • Hillebrand, Marten
  • Kikuchi, Tomoo

Abstract

We study an exchange economy with overlapping generations of consumers who derive utility from consuming a non-durable commodity and housing. A banking sector offers loans to finance housing. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium dynamics which alternates between an expansive regime where housing prices increase and banks expand loans and a contractive regime associated with decreasing housing values and shrinking credit volume. Regime switches occur even under small but persistent income changes giving rise to large and recurrent booms and busts in housing prices not reflecting changes in fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2012. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Working Paper Series in Economics 40, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:40
    DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000028302
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    2. Hui An & Lijie Yu & Rakesh Gupta, 2016. "Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 451-475, December.
    3. Linyan Wang & Haiqing Hu & Xianzhu Wang, 2022. "The Dynamic Evolution of the Structure of an Urban Housing Investment Niche Network and Its Underlying Mechanisms: A Case Study of 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    4. MeiChi Huang, 2017. "Vulnerabilities to housing bubbles: Evidence from linkages between housing prices and income fundamentals," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 64-91, March.
    5. Lise Clain-Chamoset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "Rational housing demand bubble," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(3), pages 699-746, May.
    6. Graczyk, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2021. "Regressive Welfare Effects Of Housing Bubbles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2102-2127, December.
    7. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    9. Marco M. Sorge, 2025. "Politics, Financial Regulation and Housing Bubbles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 65-91, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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