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Rational housing demand bubble

Author

Listed:
  • Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard

    (UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2)

  • Xavier Raurich

    (UB - Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Thomas Seegmuller

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We provide a unified framework with demand for housing over the life cycle and financial frictions to analyze the existence and macroeconomic effects of rational housing bubbles. We distinguish a housing price bubble, defined as the difference between the housing market price and its fundamental value, from a housing demand bubble, which corresponds to a situation where a pure speculative housing demand exists. In an overlapping generation exchange economy, we show that no housing price bubble occurs. However, a housing demand bubble may occur, generating a boom in housing prices and a drop in the interest rate, when households face a binding borrowing constraint. Multiplicity of steady states and endogenous fluctuations can occur when credit market imperfections are moderate. These fluctuations involve transitions between equilibria with and without a housing demand bubble that generate large fluctuations in housing prices consistent with observed patterns. We finally extend the basic framework to a production economy and we show that a housing demand bubble increases the housing price, housing price to income ratio and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Rational housing demand bubble," Working Papers hal-03703219, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03703219
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-03703219
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "Rational bubbles on assets with a fundamental value," AMSE Working Papers 2408, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Housing; Self-fulfilling fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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