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On rational exuberance

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In his seminal contribution, Tirole (1985) shows that an overlapping generations economy may monotonically converges to a steady state with a positive rational bubble, characterized by the dynamically efficient golden rule. The issue we address is whether this monotonic convergence to an efficient long-run equilibrium may fail, while the economy experiences persistent endogenous fluctuations around the golden rule. Our explanation leads on the features of the credit market. We consider a simple overlapping generations model with three assets: money, capital and a pure bubble (bonds). Collateral matters because increasing his portfolio in capital and bubble, the household reduces the share of his consumption paid by cash. From a positive point of view, we show that the bubbly steady state can be locally indeterminate under arbitrarily small credit market imperfections and, thereby, persistent expectation-driven fluctuations of equilibria with (rational) bubbles can arise. From a normative point of view, monetary policies that are not too expansive, are recommended in order to rule out the occurence of sunspot fluctuations and enhance the welfare evaluated at the steady state

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  • Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2009. "On rational exuberance," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 09004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:09004
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    1. Azariadis, Costas & Reichlin, Pietro, 1996. "Increasing returns and crowding out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 847-877, May.
    2. Bosi, Stefano & Magris, Francesco, 2003. "Indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations with arbitrarily small liquidity constraint," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 39-51, March.
    3. Crettez, Bertrand & Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 1999. "Cash-in-Advance Constraints in the Diamond Overlapping Generations Model: Neutrality and Optimality of Monetary Policies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 431-452, July.
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    6. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
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    1. Barbar, Riham & Bosi, Stefano, 2010. "Collaterals and macroeconomic volatility," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 146-161, September.
    2. Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Lise & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2015. "Rational bubbles and macroeconomic fluctuations: The (de-)stabilizing role of monetary policy," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Wigniolle, B., 2014. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 188-208.
    4. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "The Stabilizing Virtues of Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy on Endogenous Bubble Fluctuations," Working Papers halshs-00854536, HAL.
    5. Boucekkine, Raouf & Kazuo, Nishimura & Venditti, Alain, 2017. "Introduction to international financial markets and banking systems crises," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 87-91.
    6. Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "Rational bubbles and expectation-driven fluctuations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 69-83, March.
    7. Raurich, Xavier & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2019. "On the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 400-420.
    8. Kowalski, Tadeusz, 2013. "Globalization and Transformation in Central European Countries: The Case of Poland," MPRA Paper 59306, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; collaterals; indeterminacy; cash-in-advance constraint; overlapping generations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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