On rational exuberance
In his seminal contribution, Tirole (1985) shows that an overlapping generations economy may monotonically converge to a steady state with a positive rational bubble, characterized by the dynamically efficient golden rule. The issue we address is whether this monotonic convergence to an efficient long run equilibrium may fail, while the economy experiences persistent endogenous fluctuations around the golden rule. Our explanation leads on the features of the credit market. We consider a simple overlapping generations model with three assets: money, capital and an asset paper, which behaves as a bubble. Collaterals matter because increasing the amount of capital and asset paper in the portfolio, the household reduces the share of consumption paid in cash. From a positive point of view, we show that the bubbly steady state can be locally indeterminate under arbitrarily small credit market imperfections and, thereby, persistent expectation-driven fluctuations of equilibria with (rational) bubbles can arise. From a normative point of view, monetary policies that are not too expansive are recommended in order to rule out the occurrence of sunspot fluctuations and enhance the welfare evaluated at the steady state.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
- Philippe Michel & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2005.
"Cash-in-advance constraints, bubbles and monetary policy,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2005. "Cash-In-Advance Constraints, Bubbles, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 28-56, February.
- LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988.
"Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bosi, Stefano & Magris, Francesco, 2003. "Indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations with arbitrarily small liquidity constraint," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 39-51, March.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521001151 is not listed on IDEAS
- Azariadis, Costas & Reichlin, Pietro, 1996. "Increasing returns and crowding out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 847-877, May.
- Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2003. "Temporary bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 173-183, September.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998.
"Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
- GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel & PINTUS, Patrick & de VILDER, Robin, 1997. "Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles," CORE Discussion Papers 1997087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jean-Michel Grandmont & P, A, Pintus & R, De Vilder, 1997. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Working Papers 97-28, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:59:y:2010:i:2:p:249-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.