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On rational exuberance

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  • Bosi, Stefano
  • Seegmuller, Thomas

Abstract

In his seminal contribution, Tirole (1985) shows that an overlapping generations economy may monotonically converge to a steady state with a positive rational bubble, characterized by the dynamically efficient golden rule. The issue we address is whether this monotonic convergence to an efficient long run equilibrium may fail, while the economy experiences persistent endogenous fluctuations around the golden rule. Our explanation leads on the features of the credit market. We consider a simple overlapping generations model with three assets: money, capital and an asset paper, which behaves as a bubble. Collaterals matter because increasing the amount of capital and asset paper in the portfolio, the household reduces the share of consumption paid in cash. From a positive point of view, we show that the bubbly steady state can be locally indeterminate under arbitrarily small credit market imperfections and, thereby, persistent expectation-driven fluctuations of equilibria with (rational) bubbles can arise. From a normative point of view, monetary policies that are not too expansive are recommended in order to rule out the occurrence of sunspot fluctuations and enhance the welfare evaluated at the steady state.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosi, Stefano & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2010. "On rational exuberance," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-270, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:59:y:2010:i:2:p:249-270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Azariadis, Costas & Reichlin, Pietro, 1996. "Increasing returns and crowding out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 847-877, May.
    2. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    3. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2005. "Cash-In-Advance Constraints, Bubbles, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 28-56, February.
    4. Bosi, Stefano & Magris, Francesco, 2003. "Indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations with arbitrarily small liquidity constraint," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 39-51, March.
    5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    6. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    7. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    8. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2003. "Temporary bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 173-183, September.
    9. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    10. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wigniolle, B., 2014. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 188-208.
    2. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00673892 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "The Stabilizing Virtues of Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy on Endogenous Bubble Fluctuations," Working Papers halshs-00854536, HAL.
    4. Barbar, Riham & Bosi, Stefano, 2010. "Collaterals and macroeconomic volatility," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 146-161, September.
    5. Stefano Bosi & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "Rational bubbles and expectation-driven fluctuations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 69-83, March.
    6. Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Lise & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2015. "Rational bubbles and macroeconomic fluctuations: The (de-)stabilizing role of monetary policy," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Bertrand Wigniolle, 2012. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Post-Print halshs-00673892, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles Collaterals Indeterminacy Cash-in-advance constraint Overlapping generations;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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